Teeing off again just five months after Dustin Johnson slipped on his first green jacket in November last year, the 2021 Masters has come around in the blink of an eye and offers golf fans another wonderful opportunity to watch the world’s best players in action around one of the world’s most iconic golf courses.
Dustin Johnson has the weight of history agains him this week, with only three players ever having successfully defended the green jacket
With such a short space of time between renewals there hasn’t been a great deal of movement in the top echelons of the game, with DJ still being the world No.1 and the dominant force in the game, and quite rightly installed as favourite to become the first player since Tiger Woods in 2000/2001 to retain the green jacket (Jack Nicklaus and Nick Faldo are the only other back-to-back winners).
However, Johnson is unlikely to have the cards fall into place quite the same this time around, especially given the form of other key contenders like Justin Thomas and Jordan Speith, and the different course conditions he is likely to face. Players in last week’s Augusta National Women’s Amateur described Augusta’s greens as ‘crispy’, meaning that the target approach adopted by Johnson and some other players last year might not be so easy to pull off in chilly April.
That’s not to say that Johnson hasn’t got a decent chance of pulling off a repeat win, but he isn’t coming into the tournament in quite the same rich vein as form as he was last year, with an eighth place at Riviera being the highlight, and at 8/1 is a skinny price to become only the fourth player to win successive green jackets.
So, if not Johnson, who else should you be looking to place a bet on? Here’s a quick guide to some of the key contenders at the head of the list of likely candidates.
Bryson Dechambeau (10-1)
There was plenty of hype surrounding Dechambeau heading into last November’s Masters, however the 2020 US Open champion endured a disappointing four days on the Augusta greens. The pre-tournament favourite ended the event tied 34th although his performance was apparently hindered by dizzy spells and stomach pains.
As the longest driver on the PGA Tour, Augusta should suit him, and with every winner of the last 12 renewals ranking inside in the top 35% in terms of power hitting, Dechambeau’s ‘hit and find it’ approach is likely to pay dividends. That said, he also possesses a decent touch with a wedge and his putting stats are right up there among the best, although the lack of a green reading book at Augusta could prove an issue for man that spends so much time studying these cheat sheets. He’s a very short price for what he has achieved at Augusta to date, but an each-way bet for a top-nine finish should ensure a return if he plays anywhere near his best.
Swashbuckling Spaniard Jon Rahm would be a popular winner and he has the course to form to do it
Jon Rahm (12-1)
With six of the last ten Masters champions having previously posted a top-10 finish, and seven of the last ten having managed to finish inside the top 20, it’s easy to see why Rahm is prominent in the betting this week. He was tied seventh last year and tied ninth in 2019. He also finished fourth three years ago, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the 26-year-old Spaniard grab his first major success this week. The only slight issue is that having become a father for the first time last week, JR’s mind not be totally on his game. But, then again, the ‘Nappy Factor’ has been well proven to boost new dad’s chances of victory.
Justin Thomas (12-1)
2017 was a breakthrough year for JT, however, the Louisville-born player has yet to add a second major to his collection having triumphed in the PGA Championship four years ago. He’s typically struggled at Augusta, however last season’s fourth place finish was a huge step forward, and he will be looking to build on that. With eight of the last ten winners having also enjoyed recent success on US soil, Thomas’ triumph at last month’s Players Championship bodes well.
Jordan Spieth (11-1)
With last week’s win at the Texas Open ending an almost four-year winless streak, Jordan Spieth is right back in the reckoning to add to his record of three major titles and grab a second green jacket. His win in San Antonio was no flash in the pan, as he has been in the mix on the PGA Tour throughout the last three months, and his current odds of speak of a man back in the form that saw him dominate back in 2016/17.
Brooks Koepka (22-1)
Until 2019, the Masters had been Koepka’s Achilles Heel, and despite winning three majors, he’s consistently struggled to perform at Augusta. However, his 2021 form has been solid enough and he’s posted four top 10 finishes since the turn of the year and was victorious in the Phoenix Open, but having just had surgery on his knee it’s hard to know how fit he will be to cope with Augusta’s challenging terrain over four days.
Paul Casey has enjoyed a string of decent finishes at Augusta over the last 15 years
Paul Casey (35-1)
After winning the Dubai Desert Classic at the beginning of the year, Casey has finished 12th in Saudi Arabia, fifth at Pebble Beach, 10th in the Arnold Palmer and fifth in The Players Championship. Ranked 17th on the PGA Tour for ‘strokes-gained approach’ and having long been one of the best drivers around, we know Casey has the ideal game for Augusta and that’s reflected in his results. Ever since contending on his debut in 2004 he’s produced stacks of good golf here, with eight top-20 finishes in 14 appearances and three of his four top-sixes coming in his last six visits, evidence that his experience is paying off. He’s decent odds for a top-nine finish and could even sneak a win if everything falls into place.
Sung Jae-Im (35/1)
Eight of the last 10 winners have started the tournament at a price of 16/1 or bigger, so it could also be worth taking a chance on Sung Jae-Im. He is yet to clinch a major, but he finished tied second at last year’s event after becoming the first player in Masters’ history to shoot all four rounds in the 60s. That experience will hugely benefit the Korean, and at 35-1 he provides some decent value for each-way backers.
CAN PERFORMANCE STATS HELP FIND THE MASTERS’ WINNER?
If you’re looking for cold, hard facts to find this year’s Masters champion, then the tour performance statistics are the place to start.
Although Augusta is tree-lined, Driving Accuracy is, somewhat surprisingly, the least important stat to consider.
The trees are well-established, and the branches are high, so errant drives aren’t always punished. Length off the tee is advantageous and historically much more important than accuracy, but it hasn’t been an absolute imperative. Jordan Spieth, Danny Willett, Charl Schwartzel and Tiger Woods have all won here in the last 10 years with Driving Distance rankings of 52nd, 32nd, 40th and 44th respectively, but they’re the exceptions. Dustin Johnson, and the two winners before Tiger, all ranked sixth for Driving Distance, while six of the last 12 winners have ranked inside the top six.
The last two winners have both ranked number one for Greens in Regulation, and nine of the last 12 winners have ranked sixth or better, so that’s obviously a key stat and so too is Scrambling. The 2019 winner, Woods, only ranked 47th for getting up and down, but the last 12 winners have still averaged only 9.8. The first three home in November ranked fifth, fifth and third, but the players ranked one to eight for Scrambling in 2019 all finished inside the top 12.
Patrick Reed topped the Putting Average stats when he won three years ago, but only one of the last 12 winners have ranked inside the top 12 for that stat and among the list of winners above are a number of players that have had their fair share of woes on the greens.
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