CHELSEA return to Champions League duties this evening, after a long journey to Azerbaijan, to face Qarabag in Baku.
After winning the home match 6-0 back in September, we’ve had a couple of months of mixed fortunes but thankfully despite the odd hiccup, we seem to be moving in the right direction.
Up to second in the league this weekend, albeit temporarily as United played later than us, off the back of a five match domestic winning streak, the only black mark since the loss to Crystal Palace was in this competition.
The 3-0 defeat away to Roma was one of our worst performances in this competition for some time, yet as Atletico have unexpectedly struggled in their games this season, a win tonight will all but guarantee our passage into the next round.
Not winning this match wouldn’t be a disaster but it would leave us needing to get a result in the final match against Atletico in what already promises to be a busy December where the games come thick and fast.
Being able to rest key players in that match could really benefit us in our quest to retain the Premier League.
We should take some warning from our Spanish friends though that this match is by no means a formality, with Diego Simeone’s men only managing to draw in both their games against them showing either the resilience of Qarabag, or a big decline in fortunes for Madrid.
As this is as close to a ‘must win’ game as it can be without actually being one, I think we’ll see a strong starting line-up chosen by Antonio Conte who will want to get the result early and potentially rest players once the job is done, given the long journey back and Liverpool away on the horizon this Saturday
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After impressive wins over Mourinho’s United and more recently West Brom have shown, we are starting to find our rhythm again and we have controlled most of the match on both occasions, Hazard is clearly getting back to his best and starting to develop a lethal understanding with Morata up front.
Playing in a more ‘honest’ 3-5-2 this season than we did at the end of last season when most people still thought we were playing 3-4-3, we can expect to see our terrifying twosome lead the line with a strong mid-field and defence to hold out against any potential Qarabag threat.
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Andreas Christensen would be my pick for the central defensive role, flanked by Azpilicueta and Rudiger in defence, with Bakayoko and Kante providing the steel in midfield which should allow the likes of Zappacosta, Alonso and more crucially, Fabregas the space and time they need behind our front-men to influence this match.
It will go one of two ways this evening, we’ll either go all guns blazing and we may see a repeat of the match at Stamford Bridge and a glut of goals, if not then I expect a very cagey match with some backs to the wall defending by the home side in which we’ll have be careful of being caught on the break.
I’m hoping for the former, but we need to be patient if it’s the latter. A late 1-0 win will do just as good as a 4-0 hammering and see us through to the next round.
It doesn’t have to be pretty, we just have to get there.
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