MORE than most sports, betting on tennis is all about knowing which market to back – and when.
With the Wimbledon 2017 seeding system, the best players are usually kept apart in the early stages of the draw.
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That means that there are many odds-on favourites which offer little value.
But that does not mean that you should steer clear. Instead, follow these trends and rules in your tennis betting system.
1 Pre-match tennis betting – back the heavy favourite to win the first set
This is definitely one to look at in the early rounds of Wimbledon.
If a player in the men’s draw of a Grand Slam is 1/10 or shorter to win their match, they win the first set 87 per cent of the time.
Generally, you will be looking at odds of about 1/7 for that to happen.
All you need then is to select four matches and it will pay out at roughly 2/1. The stats are on your side for this one.
2 In-play tennis betting – wait for the men’s favourite to lose the first set
Knowing when to strike is critical in tennis. The odds can move faster than a Goran Ivanisevic serve.
Some punters like to wait to see if the favourite slips up first then make the most of their improved odds and back them to come back.
This is where it gets interesting.
Heavy favourites (1/5 or shorter) come back to win a Grand Slam match 71 per cent of the time after losing the first set.
That means that if Andy Murray, Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic are playing an outsider, but lose the first set, then you should jump on before the second starts and take advantage of their improved odds.
Seven times out of ten it will pay off.
3 In-play tennis betting – fifth set deciders
When the Big Mo turns, she turns hard.
In men’s Grand Slam matches, whoever wins the fourth set to make it 2-2 goes on to win the fifth set 55 per cent of the time.
So this is what to look out for.
If somebody draws level at 2-2 and is evens or longer, than the stats are in your favour and you should back them.
You will not win every time, of course, but backing the Big Mo will pay dividends in the long run.
It is even more pronounced if the player has won the fourth set 6-0. That player goes on to win the fifth set, and the match, 70 per cent of the time.
That means that anybody who wins the fourth set to love who is longer than 3/10 to win the match is a must-back.
4 In-play tennis betting - women's Grand Slam matches
Women's tennis offers a different challenge for punters.
With matches lasting three sets, instead of five, it is far harder to come back from a set down.
And this is reflected in the betting trends.
Where men's favourites come from behind fairly easily, it is a different matter in the women's game.
A women's favourite between 1/11 and 9/10 (in practice, this is most odds-on favourites) only comes back to win the match 32 per cent of the time when going a set down.
That means you should look out for an odds-on favourite who goes 1-0 down and then oppose them to win the match.
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