LET’S be honest here. On paper Michael Bisping is right up against it this weekend against Luke Rockhold at UFC 199.
He’s coming in at short notice, he’s fighting a guy who beat him decisively two years ago and the champ has never looked better in the Octagon than he has in his last two outings.
So why is there this nagging feeling in the back of my head that Bisping might just spring a shock and win?
Is my patriotism as a fellow Brit clouding my judgement? Is it the unashamed romantic in me who loves nothing better than a sporting fairytale story?
Whatever it is, I’ve come around to the view that this isn’t the squash match many pundits, of both actual and armchair variety, seem to think it is.
I’ll be honest, I thought when Bisping’s title shot eventually came the sheer enormity and significance of it to his career would play on his mind and weigh around his neck like a millstone come fight night.
But coming in on short notice seems to have changed all that. There’s been no time to think and the results have been here for us to see during fight week.
This is a different Bisping. As we built up to his fight against Anderson Silva in London he was all business. He’d been through the rigours of a full training camp to prepare for MMA’s ‘GOAT’ and he arrived in the capital focused and ready to jump in there and make his statement.
But this week it’s felt different.
The focus is undoubtedly there, but in London it seemed like Bisping felt under pressure to prove a point and keep his undefeated home record alive.
This week he’s been happy, relaxed and genuinely enjoying himself. And this time it feels like the weight of the world has been lifted from his shoulders.
It’s almost as if Bisping, who’ll make the walk to the Octagon for the 26th time tonight, has finally found his groove.
The chip on the shoulder has gone. The need to be part brand ambassador, part carnival barker has fallen away. The nagging ‘what if’ question about whether he could beat Anderson Silva has been answered, as has the question over whether he’d ever get a shot at the title.
Now all he has to do is turn up and fight. If he wins, a life’s work will be complete and Britain will have its first UFC world champion.
The world, so it seems, is expecting him to lose but here in LA there’s a real sense of underlying support for Bisping.
The former bad boy Brit was once the fighter people loved to hate.
His brutal knockout at the hands of Dan Henderson at UFC 100 was roundly celebrated by fans across America.
Even Hendo’s final insult, a flying forearm smash on the chin of a clearly already unconscious Bisping, was celebrated.
But despite that huge setback - both for him personally and also for the UFC here in the UK - Bisping picked himself up, dusted himself down and got back in the gym.
Despite many people ruling him out as a busted flush after that loss, Bisping came back and rose once again to a top contender spot after beating Brian Stann.
But a controversial decision loss to Chael Sonnen (in a bout even the American thought he’d lost) saw the Brit fall away again.
Just as before, Bisping came back again, only to be TKO’d in another title eliminator by a Vitor Belfort whose superhero-esque physique (and knockout form) has since noticeably disappeared since the advent of USADA’s strictly-applied anti-doping policy.
After three definitive attempts at earning a title shot fell short, many began to doubt whether Bisping would ever find his way into a title fight.
But a thrilling win over Silva on a rollercoaster of a night in London upset the Brazilian’s comeback narrative and put him right back in the title conversation again.
And after injuries to Chris Weidman and Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza saw the two top-ranked contenders ruled out, Bisping was the next man in line.
And rather than the crowd willing his opponent to knock him cold as they did at UFC 100, now there will be a groundswell of support backing the Brit at UFC 199 tonight.
Yesterday’s weigh-ins gave a hint of what to expect, with the crowd at The Forum cheering Bisping to the rafters, while his world champion opponent received a mixed reception.
He may have been the man people loved to hate, but now Bisping is the underdog everyone would love to see finally have his day.
His devil-may-care approach -”I’m supposed to lose, so f**k it!” - has endeared him to fans who love an underdog story.
And the cocksure attitude of Rockhold, whose confidence has been there for all to see leading into this fight, may have also sent a good few neutrals towards Bisping’s corner this week.
Looking at the fight completely dispassionately, it’s hard not to back Rockhold, but there is a sense that there’s something in the air here in LA.
The man from the land of The FA Cup could be about to produce a great giantkilling act of his own.
And if he does, Britain will have its first UFC world champion.
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