With Super Rugby in full swing and the European season getting towards its denouement, we take a look at the best bets from around the world.
Reds v Lions
After a positive opening to the season, it has been a difficult few weeks for the Reds and they were comprehensively outplayed by the Chiefs in Round 10, so why could they defeat the current leaders of the competition?
With the Lions in decent form and easily dispatching the Waratahs last weekend, it seems illogical, but the South Africans have lacked the consistency of the previous two years. They were defeated by the Jaguares in Argentina – a place where Brad Thorn’s outfit emerged triumphant – and were unconvincing against the Sunwolves, who are the minnows of Super Rugby.
The Queenslanders also do not lack talent and their new head coach has them well drilled up front, meaning that, at odds of 9/2 with Ladbrokes and William Hill, it is well worth a punt. Bet365 has the visitors at 11/50 after seeing them make minimal changes from the side that were dominant at the ‘Tahs, but we expect a response from the Reds.
Australian rugby is not in a great place, having seen their franchises lose all four matches last weekend, but this seems like the perfect opportunity for Thorn’s charges to lift spirits.
Worcester v Harlequins
Not the most attractive game in England’s top-tier this weekend but an intriguing encounter from a betting perspective. While both Newcastle and Sale are long odds to defeat Leicester and Exeter respectively, and on form could spring a surprise, we just feel that the Tigers and Chiefs will be too strong.
That leaves Worcester-Quins as the match where the favourites could be overturned. While the Warriors were hugely impressive in defeating the Falcons three weeks ago, they have generally struggled over recent rounds.
Of course, they have not been quite as awful as Harlequins, who have suffered heavy defeats to both London Irish and Gloucester recently, but the Londoners will no doubt want to give the soon-to-be departing director of rugby John Kingston a decent send-off.
On paper, they are more talented than the Midlanders and, at 21/10 (Marathonbet), it is a generous price for a team that not so long ago regularly challenged for the play-offs. Alan Solomons’ men are 4/9 with various bookmakers but it would not be a surprise to see Quins finally produce a decent performance and come away with a comfortable victory.
Stade Francais v Brive
This is the big clash at the bottom of the Top 14 and one that will have a huge impact on who goes down from France’s top-tier.
The Parisians are the shock strugglers having being drawn into a scrap few saw coming. While financial issues plagued them last season, they are now under the ownership of billionaire Hans-Peter Wild and should not be in this situation.
Stade’s squad is far too talented to finish in the bottom two, but they have been abysmal throughout the campaign and a loss to Brive will see them descend further into the mire.
A victory may, however, confirm their Top 14 status, and they are seen as 1/5 favourites with bet365 to do just that against the basement-dwellers. It may just relegate Nicolas Godignon’s men too, with a win for Oyonnax potentially taking Adrien Buononato’s side out of reach.
It is why it is such a crucial encounter and why it is slightly surprising the 2015 champions have been backed so heavily. While the home crowd can make a difference in these contests, they can also be a burden should the match start to slip away from the hosts.
Brive are 4/1 at Betway to keep themselves in the battle for survival and 15/1 at BetStars to emerge triumphant at full-time having seen Stade lead at the break, should the pressure get too much for the Parisians.
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