Bristol occupy 12th spot in the Premiership over Christmas but history shows the bottom side at halfway in the season does not always go down.
Apart from 2010/2011 when bad weather delayed the halfway point (11 matches) of the Premiership season beyond Christmas into February, the festive period and middle of the campaign go hand in hand.
Now in its 20th season, most teams in the Premiership have backed up the theory that bottom of the table over the first half of the season is a sign of an impending drop.
Others however have defied it, either through miraculous recoveries or by winning consistently in the second half of the season in stark contrast to when they could not buy a victory in the first 11 matches.
Bristol’s win over Worcester on Boxing Day points to another turnaround, even with a long way to go.
|
Season |
Bottom at Christmas |
Record at Christmas |
How many points adrift? |
Final Position |
Who went down? |
|
1997-1998 |
London Irish |
Won 1, Lost 10 |
– |
11th |
Bristol |
|
1998-1999 |
West Hartlepool |
Won 1, Lost 12 |
– |
14th |
West Hartlepool |
|
1999-2000 |
Bedford |
Lost 11 |
– |
12th |
Bedford |
|
2000-2001 |
Rotherham |
Won 1, Lost 10: 6 points |
9 |
12th |
Rotherham |
|
2001-2002 |
Wasps |
Won 3, Lost 8: 15 points |
4 |
7th |
– |
|
2002-2003 |
Newcastle |
Won 3, Lost 8: 16 points |
1 |
10th |
Bristol |
|
2003-2004 |
Rotherham |
Lost 11: 0 points |
19 |
12th |
Rotherham |
|
2004-2005 |
Northampton |
Won 2, Lost 9: 14 points |
3 |
11th |
Harlequins |
|
2005-2006 |
Leeds |
Won 2, Lost 9: 11 points |
6 |
12th |
Leeds |
|
2006-2007 |
Worcester |
Won 1, Lost 10: 9 points |
9 |
11th |
Northampton |
|
2007-2008 |
Leeds |
Won 1, Lost 10: 6 points |
5 |
12th |
Leeds |
|
2008-2009 |
Bristol |
Won 1, Drawn 1, Lost 9: 9 points |
3 |
12th |
Bristol |
|
2009-2010 |
Leeds |
Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 8: 13 points |
3 |
10th |
Worcester |
|
2010-2011 |
Leeds |
Won 1, Lost 10: 8 points |
4 |
12th |
Leeds |
|
2011-2012 |
Newcastle |
Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 8: 11 points |
6 |
12th |
Newcastle |
|
2012-2013 |
Sale |
Won 1, Lost 10: 7 points |
5 |
10th |
London Welsh |
|
2013-2014 |
Worcester |
Lost 11: 3 points |
10 |
12th |
Worcester |
|
2014-2015 |
London Welsh |
Lost 11: 1 point |
14 |
12th |
London Welsh |
|
2015-2016 |
Newcastle |
Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 8: 12 points |
0 |
11th |
London Irish |
|
2016-2017 |
Bristol |
Won 1, Lost 10: 8 points |
2 |
? |
? |
Overall in eleven out of the 19 completed Premiership seasons so far, the team at the bottom come Christmas (or the halfway point of the season) has gone down.
Unsurprisingly three of those – Rotherham in 03/04, Worcester in 13/14 and London Welsh in 14/15 – were teams who had yet to win any of their first eleven games.
The most impressive turnaround is still Worcester in 2006/2007, when their relegation battle with Northampton went to the final day of the season and despite both sides winning the Warriors stayed up, by a point. They had been nine points adrift at Christmas.
What will be music to Bristol’s ears is the fact of the sevens teams to avoid the drop – there was no relegation in 2002 after Rotherham were denied promotion – six of those teams at Christmas have trailed by five points or less.
The signs of a Bristol resurgence have been there since their narrow away loss to Bath, with their form undoubtedly improved under the guidance of acting head coach Mark Tainton since he took over from Andy Robinson.
Signing Jason Woodward and Dan Tuohy has been shrewd business and the Super Rugby winning full-back offers a reliable boot and is beginning to form an impressive bond with Tom Varndell in the back three.
Varndell’s hot streak needs to continue, after his hat-trick on Boxing Day, but there are real suggestions that Bristol have begun to turn a corner.
Their trip to Sale on New Year’s Day now looks like a golden opportunity to try and move off the bottom.
All data provided by SFMS Ltd
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