A three-times winner who might not be quite what he was, a route that offers something for everyone and high-quality contenders may produce a spectacular
When a three-times Tour de France winner is on the start line in anything resembling a decent state of fitness, forecasts boil down to a simple statement: one man versus the rest. Thus it was with Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, Miguel Indurain and Lance Armstrong – now disgraced, once perennially dominant – and so it is with Chris Froome, who starts the Tour as the overwhelming favourite, even though he has not yet shown the incisive form of his better years.
There is always speculation that the sheer weight of opposing numbers will one day overcome the counterweight of incumbency but it tends to be wishful thinking. Each of those contenders has his own priorities and the immense importance of the Tour induces a risk-benefit analysis: the favourites weigh up what they have to lose with what they might have to gain and all too frequently it is the former that consumes them.
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