Big Orange has drifted a little this morning for the first running of the Goodwood Cup as a Group 1 race, from odds-on on Monday evening to a top price of evens with several firms, including a handful who might actually lay more than tuppence ha’penny. It remains a very lopsided market, however, with every other horse in the 14-strong field on offer at double-figure odds since the chances arrayed against Michael Bell’s gelding are all seen as much of a muchness.
The fact that there is still a mention of “soft” in the going this morning – it is officially good, good-to-soft in places – is the main point that puts me off Big Orange at the prices on offer. His record speaks for itself, at this track in particular, but Bell’s post-race comments after his wins tend to refer to what a monster he is on really fast summer ground. On good going, an all-the-way success, even at a track that favours frontrunners, may be a more difficult trick to pull off.
Related: Goodwood on course to take York’s place in Flat hierarchy
Continue reading...