UPDATED SEP. 14, 2017 AT 1:50 PM
2017-18 NBA PredictionsBased on “CARM-Elo,” a mix of team Elo ratings and our CARMELO player projections. Updated after every game.
More NBA: CARMELO projections Every team’s Elo history
StandingsGames
| AVG. SIMULATED SEASON | PLAYOFF CHANCES | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELO | CARM-ELO | 1-WEEK CHANGE | TEAM | CONFERENCE | RECORD | POINT DIFF/G | MAKE PLAYOFFS | TOP SEED | WIN TITLE | |
| 1707 | 1741 | -88 | Warriors1-2 | West | 61-21 | +8.1 | >99% | 53% | 30% | |
| 1618 | 1641 | -16 | Cavaliers2-1 | East | 56-26 | +6.3 | 98% | 47% | 14% | |
| 1534 | 1612 | +48 | Timberwolves2-0 | West | 52-30 | +4.8 | 88% | 10% | 6% | |
| 1530 | 1608 | +9 | Thunder1-0 | West | 51-31 | +4.1 | 83% | 8% | 6% | |
| 1621 | 1605 | +24 | Clippers1-0 | West | 50-32 | +4.3 | 83% | 7% | 5% | |
| 1597 | 1596 | +43 | Rockets2-1 | West | 50-32 | +4.3 | 82% | 7% | 5% | |
| 1526 | 1593 | -10 | Raptors1-1 | East | 50-32 | +3.6 | 93% | 18% | 7% | |
| 1586 | 1591 | -26 | Spurs0-1 | West | 48-34 | +2.8 | 76% | 5% | 4% | |
| 1560 | 1582 | -16 | Jazz1-1 | West | 49-33 | +2.7 | 78% | 5% | 5% | |
| 1550 | 1577 | +11 | Trail Blazers1-1 | West | 47-35 | +2.7 | 72% | 4% | 3% | |
| 1507 | 1548 | +12 | Bulls1-0 | East | 47-35 | +2.0 | 84% | 11% | 3% | |
| 1552 | 1539 | +81 | Hawks2-0 | East | 46-36 | +2.5 | 85% | 10% | 3% | |
| 1467 | 1509 | +44 | Magic2-1 | East | 42-40 | +1.2 | 72% | 4% | 2% | |
| 1475 | 1503 | +31 | Mavericks1-2 | West | 39-43 | -0.3 | 36% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1449 | 1494 | -40 | Hornets1-1 | East | 41-41 | -0.4 | 66% | 3% | 1% | |
| 1578 | 1490 | +21 | Wizards2-0 | East | 40-42 | +0.2 | 63% | 3% | <1% | |
| 1524 | 1487 | +37 | Grizzlies2-0 | West | 39-43 | -0.5 | 36% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1531 | 1480 | -6 | Nuggets0-1 | West | 39-43 | -0.8 | 35% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1454 | 1471 | -91 | Celtics0-3 | East | 37-45 | -2.6 | 48% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1533 | 1450 | +43 | Bucks1-1 | East | 37-45 | -1.4 | 46% | 1% | <1% | |
| 1426 | 1448 | -30 | Pistons0-2 | East | 36-46 | -2.2 | 41% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1395 | 1436 | -9 | Knicks0-1 | East | 34-48 | -2.9 | 35% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1417 | 1434 | -15 | Kings1-1 | West | 33-49 | -3.9 | 14% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1461 | 1428 | -24 | Pelicans0-2 | West | 31-51 | -4.2 | 10% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1465 | 1417 | -31 | Pacers0-1 | East | 32-50 | -3.7 | 25% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1511 | 1398 | -18 | Heat0-1 | East | 31-51 | -4.4 | 21% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1374 | 1396 | -14 | Suns1-1 | West | 29-53 | -4.6 | 6% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1385 | 1382 | +3 | 76ers1-2 | East | 29-53 | -4.9 | 16% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1391 | 1353 | +3 | Lakers1-1 | West | 26-56 | -6.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% | |
| 1421 | 1334 | +24 | Nets1-0 | East | 25-57 | -6.2 | 6% | <1% | <1% | |
Forecast fromTodaySept. 14 (preseason)
How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for team fatigue, travel distance to games, and home courts with higher altitudes. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent, while our CARMELO projections estimate a player’s future performance based on the trajectory of other, similar NBA players. Our CARM-Elo ratings, which power the forecast model, blend these two metrics to measure a team’s quality based on both its game results and its roster. Full methodology »
By Jay Boice, Ella Koeze and Nate Silver. Additional contributions from Neil Paine. Illustration by Elias Stein.
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