FiveThirtyEight
2017 March Madness Predictions
In-game win probabilities and chances of advancing, updating live.
How this works | ESPN coverage
MENWOMEN
–Excitement index
6:40 PM EDTSCOREWIN PROB
M. St. Mary’s16—56%
New Orleans16—44%
9:10 PM EDTSCOREWIN PROB
Wake Forest11—52%
Kansas State11—48%
ROUND-BY-ROUND PROBABILITIES
BracketTable
Hover to see each team’s path to the championship.
championship logo
EAST
MIDWEST
WEST
SOUTH
1ST ROUND
1ST ROUND
2ND ROUND
2ND ROUND
SWEET 16
SWEET 16
ELITE EIGHT
ELITE EIGHT
FINAL FOUR
FINAL FOUR
CHAMPIONSHIP
New Orleans 16
M. St. Mary’s 16
56%
Kansas State 11
Wake Forest 11
52%
NC Central 16
UC-Davis 16
63%
Providence 11
USC 11
58%
15%
CHANCE OF
WINNING
TOURNAMENT
21%
38%
56%
81%
98%
Kansas 1
NCCU/UCD 16
Miami (FL) 8
Michigan St. 9
Iowa State 5
Nevada 12
Purdue 4
Vermont 13
Creighton 6
Rhode Island 11
Oregon 3
Iona 14
Michigan 7
Okla. State 10
Louisville 2
Jax. State 15
30%
UNC 1
TXSO 16
Arkansas 8
Seton Hall 9
Minnesota 5
Mid. Tenn. 12
Butler 4
Winthrop 13
47%
Cincinnati 6
KSU/WAKE 11
UCLA 3
Kent St. 14
68%
Dayton 7
Wichita St. 10
97%
Kentucky 2
N. Kentucky 15
24%
40%
59%
80%
99%
1 Villanova
16 UNO/MSM
8 Wisconsin
9 Virginia Tech
5 Virginia
12 UNC-Wilm.
4 Florida
13 E. Tenn. St.
6 SMU
11 PROV/USC
3 Baylor
14 NM State
7 S. Carolina
10 Marquette
2 Duke
15 Troy
41%
60%
84%
98%
1 Gonzaga
16 S. Dakota St.
8 N’western
9 Vanderbilt
5 Notre Dame
12 Princeton
4 W. Virginia
13 Bucknell
6 Maryland
11 Xavier
3 Florida State
14 FGCU
7 St. Mary’s
10 VCU
2 Arizona
15 N. Dakota
Forecast
Originally published March 12. Download forecast data.
By Jay Boice and Nate Silver