FiveThirtyEight
2018 March Madness Predictions
In-game win probabilities and chances of advancing, updating live.
How this works | ESPN coverage
Men
Women
6:40 p.m. EDT | truTVSCOREWIN PROB.
‘
Radford16—67%
‘
Long Island16—33%
9:10 p.m. EDT | truTVSCOREWIN PROB.
‘
UCLA11—54%
‘
St. Bon.11—46%
Round-by-round probabilities
Bracket
Table
CHANCE OF REACHING ROUND
TEAMREGIONPOWER RATING1ST2NDSWEET 16ELITE EIGHTFINAL FOURCHAMP.WIN
‘
Virginia 1South94.3
98%
86%
67%
47%
32%
18%
‘
Villanova 1East94.9
99%
86%
67%
50%
29%
17%
‘
Duke 2Midwest92.6
96%
81%
47%
29%
17%
10%
‘
Kansas 1Midwest90.9
95%
76%
61%
31%
14%
7%
‘
Michigan St. 3Midwest91.7
92%
75%
40%
25%
12%
6%
‘
Cincinnati 2South91.1
93%
78%
53%
23%
13%
6%
‘
Purdue 2East91.1
98%
73%
50%
20%
10%
5%
‘
UNC 2West90.6
96%
79%
46%
25%
11%
5%
‘
Gonzaga 4West89.5
92%
70%
43%
24%
9%
4%
‘
Xavier 1West89.0
98%
72%
35%
18%
7%
3%
‘
Michigan 3West88.5
89%
55%
27%
14%
6%
2%
‘
W. Virginia 5East88.6
84%
45%
15%
8%
4%
2%
‘
Tennessee 3South87.2
91%
59%
27%
9%
4%
2%
‘
Kentucky 5South88.1
76%
40%
13%
7%
4%
2%
‘
Wichita St. 4East88.0
91%
50%
13%
6%
3%
1%
‘
Arizona 4South87.9
85%
49%
13%
6%
3%
1%
‘
Texas Tech 3East87.3
89%
54%
20%
6%
3%
1%
‘
Houston 6West86.0
71%
33%
15%
7%
3%
1%
‘
Florida 6East86.5
66%
32%
13%
4%
2%
0.7%
‘
Ohio State 5West85.6
77%
24%
11%
5%
2%
0.6%
‘
TCU 6Midwest84.9
57%
14%
5%
2%
0.8%
0.4%
‘
Auburn 4Midwest84.1
80%
42%
12%
3%
0.9%
0.3%
‘
Seton Hall 8Midwest85.0
63%
16%
9%
3%
0.9%
0.3%
‘
Butler 10East84.7
60%
17%
9%
2%
0.8%
0.3%
‘
Clemson 5Midwest84.2
62%
35%
10%
3%
0.8%
0.3%
‘
Texas A&M 7West83.6
58%
13%
5%
2%
0.8%
0.3%
‘
Miami 6South84.0
60%
25%
8%
2%
0.8%
0.3%
‘
Florida State 9West83.6
61%
19%
7%
2%
0.7%
0.2%
‘
Texas 10South82.9
60%
13%
5%
1%
0.6%
0.2%
‘
Virginia Tech 8East83.4
59%
9%
3%
1%
0.4%
0.1%
‘
Creighton 8South83.4
58%
8%
3%
1%
0.5%
0.1%
‘
Arkansas 7East83.3
40%
9%
4%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
‘
SDSU 11West81.7
29%
9%
4%
2%
0.4%
0.1%
‘
Rhode Island 7Midwest83.1
58%
11%
3%
1%
0.3%
<0.1%
'
Oklahoma 10Midwest82.1
42%
7%
2%
0.7%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
UCLA 11East83.2
54%
21%
9%
3%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
Alabama 9East82.2
41%
5%
2%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
Kansas State 9South81.5
42%
5%
2%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
Loyola (IL) 11South81.3
40%
14%
4%
0.7%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
NC State 9Midwest81.8
37%
7%
3%
0.8%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
Missouri 8West80.8
39%
9%
3%
0.8%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
Davidson 12South81.8
24%
8%
2%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
Syracuse 11Midwest81.8
59%
27%
6%
2%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
Nevada 7South81.8
40%
7%
2%
0.4%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
Providence 10West81.3
42%
8%
2%
0.7%
0.2%
<0.1%
'
NM State 12Midwest79.8
38%
18%
3%
0.6%
0.1%
<0.1%
'
Arizona St. 11Midwest81.3
41%
16%
3%
0.7%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
St. Bon. 11East80.3
46%
13%
4%
1%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
S. Dakota St. 12West78.1
23%
4%
1%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Murray St. 12East78.9
16%
4%
0.5%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Buffalo 13South79.1
15%
4%
0.5%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
UNC-Greens. 13West78.0
8%
3%
0.6%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Bucknell 14Midwest78.3
8%
3%
0.4%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Georgia St. 15South75.9
7%
2%
0.6%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Montana 14West76.8
11%
2%
0.5%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Charleston 13Midwest76.5
20%
5%
0.7%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Marshall 13East75.6
9%
1%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
SF Austin 14East74.8
11%
2%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Penn 16Midwest75.5
5%
1%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Wright State 14South74.3
9%
2%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Iona 15Midwest74.8
4%
1%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Lipscomb 15West72.5
4%
0.7%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
UMBC 16South71.4
2%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Radford 16East70.9
67%
1%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
CSU-Full. 15East71.9
2%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
TXSO 16West67.9
58%
1%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
Long Island 16East67.6
33%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
'
NC Central 16West65.3
42%
0.8%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
Forecast from
Originally published March 11. Download forecast data.
By Jay Boice, Rachael Dottle and Nate Silver.