UPDATED AUG. 27, 2019, AT 5:52 PM
2019 NFL Predictions
For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game.
More NFL:Every team’s Elo historyCan you outsmart our forecasts?
Standings
Games
Quarterbacks
Show our quarterback-adjusted Elo forecast
Show our traditional Elo forecast
1636
NE-logoNew EnglandAFC East11-5+105.680%68%43%14%
1604
KC-logoKansas CityAFC West10-6+74.167%49%29%8%
1594
NO-logoNew OrleansNFC South10-6+64.562%45%25%7%
1584
PHI-logoPhiladelphiaNFC East10-6+66.264%50%27%8%
1583
LAR-logoL.A. RamsNFC West10-6+56.860%45%24%6%
1573
LAC-logoL.A. ChargersAFC West10-6+54.458%37%21%6%
1567
CHI-logoChicagoNFC North9-7+43.954%38%20%6%
1567
PIT-logoPittsburghAFC North9-7+51.757%40%21%6%
1546
DAL-logoDallasNFC East9-7+33.450%34%17%4%
1539
MIN-logoMinnesotaNFC North9-7+20.443%28%14%3%
1534
SEA-logoSeattleNFC West8-8+17.143%29%13%3%
1529
ATL-logoAtlantaNFC South8-8+11.539%24%13%3%
1526
BAL-logoBaltimoreAFC North8-8+17.443%27%13%3%
1522
HOU-logoHoustonAFC South8-8+6.841%29%12%3%
1522
GB-logoGreen BayNFC North8-8+8.338%22%11%3%
1515
CLE-logoClevelandAFC North8-8+13.441%25%12%3%
1508
-3CAR-logoCarolinaNFC South8-8+7.137%22%11%2%
1506
JAX-logoJacksonvilleAFC South8-8+4.139%27%11%2%
1503
TEN-logoTennesseeAFC South8-8-3.037%26%10%2%
1493
SF-logoSan FranciscoNFC West8-8-8.132%21%9%2%
1474
IND-logoIndianapolisAFC South7-9-24.227%18%6%1%
1468
BUF-logoBuffaloAFC East7-9-18.527%14%7%1%
1459
DEN-logoDenverAFC West7-9-44.020%10%4%<1%
1456
DET-logoDetroitNFC North7-9-37.322%12%5%1%
1452
NYJ-logoN.Y. JetsAFC East7-9-29.924%12%5%<1%
1438
TB-logoTampa BayNFC South6-10-53.017%9%3%<1%
1424
WSH-logoWashingtonNFC East6-10-62.415%8%3%<1%
1419
CIN-logoCincinnatiAFC North6-10-60.916%8%3%<1%
1417
NYG-logoN.Y. GiantsNFC East6-10-57.616%9%3%<1%
1407
OAK-logoOaklandAFC West6-10-82.011%5%2%<1%
1395
MIA-logoMiamiAFC East6-10-84.511%5%2%<1%
1384
ARI-logoArizonaNFC West5-11-91.610%5%2%<1%
Forecast from
How this works: This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our traditional model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for every upcoming game, and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games. A team’s current quarterback adjustment is based on likely starters for their next game, and how much better or worse they are than the team’s top starter. Full methodology »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Nate Silver and Jay Boice.