How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning. (Before Oct. 30, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the AP Top 25 poll is used instead.) The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Every forecast update is based on 20,000 simulations of the remaining season. Full methodology »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Rachael Dottle. Statistical model by Nate Silver.