Last April, we previewed the Boston Red Sox’s 2015 season by focusing on the franchise’s wild ups and downs in recent years. Although they posted only 71 wins in 2014, advanced-stats outlets such as FanGraphs projected Boston to win 90 games, which would have been a 19-win increase — and would have come on the heels of a 26-win decrease, after a 28-win increase, after a 21-win decrease. Boston was shaping up to be on MLB’s craziest roller-coaster ride ever.
It didn’t quite work out that way. The Red Sox spent most of 2015 playing just as poorly as they had in 2014, finishing with 78 wins only thanks to a strong push in the season’s final two months, and the fallout was a total front-office shake-up. But more than one-third of the way into the 2016 season, the Red Sox appear to have made the leap that was expected of them a year ago: They have a 34-25 record, are only two games out of first in the American League East, and have a full-season FanGraphs projection of 90 wins. If that last number holds up, Boston’s past five years will once again represent the most up-and-down stretch in modern MLB history:
| WIN DIFF. IN NO. OF SEASONS EARLIER | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASON | TEAM | WINS | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | AVG. ABSOLUTE Δ | |
| 1 | 2016 | Red Sox | 90 | -12 | -7 | +26 | -28 | +21 | 18.8 |
| 2 | 2010 | Mariners | 61 | +24 | -24 | +27 | -10 | -9 | 18.8 |
| 3 | 2004 | Mariners | 63 | +30 | 0 | +23 | -25 | -12 | 18.0 |
| 4 | 2002 | Cubs | 67 | +21 | -23 | +2 | +22 | -21 | 18.0 |
| 5 | 2007 | Diamondbacks | 90 | -14 | +1 | -26 | +33 | +14 | 17.6 |
| 6 | 1997 | Giants | 90 | -22 | +8 | +2 | +25 | -31 | 17.6 |
| 7 | 1992 | Orioles | 89 | -22 | +9 | +11 | -33 | +13 | 17.4 |
| 8 | 1983 | Athletics | 74 | -6 | +25 | -10 | -29 | +15 | 17.1 |
| 9 | 1994 | Reds | 92 | -19 | +17 | -16 | +17 | -16 | 17.1 |
| 10 | 1999 | Padres | 74 | +24 | -22 | +15 | -12 | -12 | 17.1 |
| 11 | 1988 | Indians | 78 | -17 | +23 | -24 | +15 | -5 | 16.8 |
| 12 | 1984 | Angels | 81 | -11 | +23 | -17 | -10 | +22 | 16.7 |
| 13 | 1992 | Dodgers | 63 | +30 | -7 | -8 | +17 | -22 | 16.6 |
| 14 | 1989 | Cardinals | 86 | -10 | +19 | -16 | +22 | -17 | 16.6 |
| 15 | 1972 | Indians | 75 | -15 | +16 | -14 | +24 | -12 | 16.0 |
| 16 | 2003 | Angels | 77 | +22 | -24 | +7 | -12 | +15 | 16.0 |
| 17 | 1985 | Reds | 90 | -20 | +4 | -13 | +36 | -8 | 16.0 |
| 18 | 2000 | Marlins | 79 | -15 | -10 | +38 | -12 | -4 | 15.9 |
| 19 | 2002 | Astros | 84 | +9 | -21 | +25 | +5 | -18 | 15.6 |
| 20 | 1970 | Mets | 83 | +17 | -27 | -12 | +5 | -16 | 15.6 |
What has changed for Boston since the past two disappointing seasons? Mainly, they’re getting better performances from the lineup. The Red Sox were pretty much a dead-average hitting and fielding team a year ago, which added up to a mediocre record when combined with an unspectacular pitching staff. But this year, no team in the majors — not even the vaunted Chicago Cubs — has gotten more wins above replacement from its position players than Boston, a development headlined by drastic improvements from Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts, a bounce-back season from Dustin Pedroia and the general agelessness of David Ortiz.
The Red Sox will probably still spend the summer in a division dogfight with the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays; our power ratings say they’re basically a coin flip (48 percent) to win the East. But even that represents an improvement over the past two seasons and could provide more twists in the roller-coaster track the franchise has been riding. Things are never dull when it comes to baseball in Boston.
