(UPDATE: The article below was written before the Browns beat San Diego on Saturday, Dec. 14. The team now has a record of 1-14.)
A few weeks ago, when Cleveland was merely 0-11, we gave them a 32 percent chance of finishing the season winless. Since then, they’ve suffered double-digit losses to the Giants, Bengals and Bills. Based on their current Elo rating — which is the worst in the NFL since the 2009 Lions plunged even lower than the winless 2008 squad — we give them a 31 percent chance of beating the Chargers this week, and just a 7 percent chance of winning in Pittsburgh in Week 17. Their chances of going 0-16 have risen to 65 percent.8
It’s not all bad news for Browns fans, though. If they lose to the Chargers and the 49ers win or tie, they’ll lock up the No. 1 overall draft pick. They still have the NFL’s best offensive tackle in Joe Thomas, although they’ve likely wasted his career peak. Plus the Cavaliers and Indians have been pretty great recently, so why get greedy?
And while it’s probably not much consolation, this Browns team has been unlucky as far as winless squads go. They’ve been outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game, which is terrible but not “one of the worst teams of all time” terrible. Based on seasons since 1960, we’d expect teams with a -13.4 margin of victory to have an average of 1.9 wins over their first 14 games. 9 In fact, the Browns currently rank as only the 37th-worst team since 1960 by margin of victory, far better than the infamous 1976 Bucs, 1960 Cowboys and 2008 Lions.
| RECORD | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR | TEAM | W | L | T | MARGIN OF VICTORY | |
| 1 | 1976 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 14 | 0 | -20.5 |
| 2 | 1972 | New England Patriots | 3 | 11 | 0 | -18.1 |
| 3 | 1973 | Houston Oilers | 1 | 13 | 0 | -17.7 |
| 4 | 1967 | Atlanta Falcons | 1 | 12 | 1 | -17.6 |
| 5 | 1981 | Baltimore Colts | 2 | 14 | 0 | -17.1 |
| 6 | 1966 | New York Giants | 1 | 12 | 1 | -17.0 |
| 7 | 1966 | Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 11 | 0 | -16.6 |
| 8 | 1990 | New England Patriots | 1 | 15 | 0 | -16.6 |
| 9 | 2009 | St. Louis Rams | 1 | 15 | 0 | -16.3 |
| 10 | 2000 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 13 | 0 | -16.1 |
| 11 | 1960 | Dallas Cowboys | 0 | 11 | 1 | -16.0 |
| 12 | 1961 | Oakland Raiders | 2 | 12 | 0 | -15.8 |
| 13 | 1968 | Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 12 | 0 | -15.6 |
| 14 | 1961 | Washington Redskins | 1 | 12 | 1 | -15.6 |
| 15 | 2008 | Detroit Lions | 0 | 16 | 0 | -15.6 |
| 16 | 1972 | Houston Oilers | 1 | 13 | 0 | -15.4 |
| 17 | 1987 | Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 12 | 0 | -15.4 |
| 18 | 1976 | New York Jets | 3 | 11 | 0 | -15.3 |
| 19 | 1970 | Boston Patriots | 2 | 12 | 0 | -15.1 |
| 20 | 1971 | Buffalo Bills | 1 | 13 | 0 | -15.0 |
| 21 | 1991 | Indianapolis Colts | 1 | 15 | 0 | -14.9 |
| 22 | 1972 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 11 | 1 | -14.8 |
| 23 | 1990 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 13 | 0 | -14.6 |
| 23 | 1986 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 | 14 | 0 | -14.6 |
| 25 | 2008 | St. Louis Rams | 2 | 14 | 0 | -14.6 |
| 25 | 2000 | Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 13 | 0 | -14.6 |
| 27 | 2009 | Detroit Lions | 2 | 14 | 0 | -14.5 |
| 28 | 1976 | Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 12 | 0 | -14.3 |
| 29 | 2003 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 12 | 0 | -14.2 |
| 30 | 1973 | San Diego Chargers | 2 | 11 | 1 | -14.1 |
| 30 | 1964 | Denver Broncos | 2 | 11 | 1 | -14.1 |
| 32 | 1975 | New Orleans Saints | 2 | 12 | 0 | -13.9 |
| 32 | 1965 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 12 | 0 | -13.9 |
| 34 | 1963 | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 12 | 0 | -13.8 |
| 35 | 1999 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 14 | 0 | -13.8 |
| 36 | 1982 | Baltimore Colts | 0 | 8 | 1 | -13.7 |
| 37 | 2016 | Cleveland Browns | 0 | 14 | 0 | -13.4 |
| 37 | 1975 | Chicago Bears | 4 | 10 | 0 | -13.4 |
| 37 | 1967 | Miami Dolphins | 4 | 10 | 0 | -13.4 |
The Browns still have time, though. If they lose their final two games by a mere 141 total points, their 0-16 record and -20.6 margin of victory will assure them the title of worst team in NFL history.
Check out our latest NFL predictions.