FiveThirtyEight
PUBLISHED JUN. 28, 2018 AT 5:43 PM
50 Years Of World Cup Doppelgangers
FiveThirtyEight’s MESSI* analysis compares every player in every World Cup from 1966 to 2018 by generating statistical fingerprints of 5,882 World Cup performances.
Which performances are most similar to
David Silva (Spain 2018)
?
David Silva
TEAM: SPAIN 2018
PLAY STYLE: CREATIVE ATTACKER
Attack
Passing & dribbling
Other
Defense
Tackles
Progressive
passes
Touches
in box
Crosses
Passes
Take-ons
Progressive
dribbles
Interceptions
Blocks
Clearances
Non-shot
exp. goals
Headers
Fouls committed
Fouls drawn
Goals
Expected
goals
Most similar World Cup performances
1. Jan Ceulemans
BELGIUM 1982
2. Michel
SPAIN 1986
3. Marco van Basten
NETHERLANDS 1990
4. Finidi George
NIGERIA 1998
5. Hugo Sanchez
MEXICO 1978
6. Dirk Kuyt
NETHERLANDS 2010
7. Zbigniew Boniek
POLAND 1986
8. Kevin De Bruyne
BELGIUM 2018
9. Braulio Luna
MEXICO 2002
*FiveThirtyEight’s Modeled Event Soccer Similarity Index (MESSI) is a system that evaluates and compares player performances across 16 metrics. Each metric is measured on a per-match basis, and for each metric we calculate a z-score — the number of standard deviations above or below average for that World Cup. The similarity between a pair of performances is based on the average between each of their 16 z-scores — in other words, comparisons match players who are good at similar parts of the game, but the model ignores details like a player’s age or position. Players must have played at least 30 minutes in a given World Cup to be included. Play styles are generated through k-means clustering.
Only successful crosses, tackles, passes, take-ons and headers are counted, and tackles, interceptions and blocks are adjusted for the time of possession the player’s team had during each match. Progressive passes and dribbles advance the ball at least 10 yards toward the opponent’s goal or into their box. Expected goals is the number of goals that our model thinks an average player would score based on the quality and quantity of shots taken, and non-shot expected goals is an estimate of the number of goals an average player’s non-shooting actions — passes, take-ons, interceptions, tackles and headers — would generate for his team.
All metrics here were calculated by FiveThirtyEight using data from the sports analytics company Opta and may differ from similar metrics at other sites. Numbers will update after each match through the end of the 2018 World Cup.
Source: Opta
Statistical model by Jay Boice. Design and development by Jay Boice and Rachael Dottle. Additional contributions by Gus Wezerek.
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