We’re entering the last five weeks of the NFL season, and after this week, there are no more regular-season byes. But the two teams sitting out — the Browns and Titans — aren’t exactly huge players in the playoff hunt. So of the 15 games that will be played this week, which ones actually matter?
Last week we used the model behind our 2016 NFL predictions to calculate how much each team’s playoff chances “swing” depending on the outcome of each game. For example, we currently give the Buffalo Bills a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they beat Oakland this week, we project those chances will increase to 49 percent (independent of other games). If they lose, their chances drop to 12 percent. That’s a 37 percentage point swing! By doing this same math for every matchup and factoring in how each team’s resulting record will affect others’ playoff odds, we can find out which games are the most impactful. Here are the top five for Week 13:
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF MIA WINS | IF BAL WINS | SWING | |
| Miami | 35% | 53% | 20% | 34 | |
| Baltimore | 34 | 18 | 48 | 29 | |
| Pittsburgh | 67 | 78 | 58 | 20 | |
| Buffalo | 27 | 21 | 31 | 10 | |
| Denver | 51 | 46 | 55 | 9 | |
| Oakland | 88 | 86 | 90 | 3 | |
| Kansas City | 93 | 91 | 94 | 2 | |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
With a lot of season left, the AFC Wild Card is already down to a four-way (or five-way, depending on how you’re counting) race. Denver, Miami and Buffalo are in the hunt and have very low chances of winning their respective divisions. And whichever of Oakland and Kansas City fails to win the AFC West is in line for the first wild-card slot.
If the season ended today, Miami (on a six-game winning streak) would take the second slot on tiebreak. But our projections still think they’re a much worse team than the defending-champion Broncos, who have the same 7-4 record. A minor upset at Baltimore would go a long way toward shoring up the Dolphins’ playoff odds.
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF NYG WINS | IF PIT WINS | SWING | |
| Pittsburgh | 67% | 49% | 77% | 28 | |
| N.Y. Giants | 73 | 90 | 63 | 26 | |
| Baltimore | 34 | 48 | 27 | 20 | |
| Washington | 52 | 48 | 54 | 6 | |
| Minnesota | 49 | 45 | 50 | 5 | |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 6 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tampa Bay | 27 | 25 | 29 | 4 | |
| Detroit | 71 | 69 | 73 | 4 | |
The famous 2004 QB draft class is alive and well, as Eli Manning battles Ben Roethlisberger in Week 13 with playoffs on the line. (Fellow 2004 draftee Philip Rivers and his Chargers are donezo for the third straight season with just a 2 percent chance of making the playoffs.) The Giants are starting to look a bit like their 2007 and 2011 selves, so forward-thinking New England fans may want to root for the Steelers.
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF HOU WINS | IF GB WINS | SWING | |
| Houston | 70% | 85% | 61% | 24 | |
| Green Bay | 17 | 6 | 24 | 17 | |
| Indianapolis | 19 | 11 | 23 | 12 | |
| Tennessee | 13 | 7 | 17 | 10 | |
| Detroit | 71 | 76 | 69 | 7 | |
| Minnesota | 49 | 52 | 46 | 6 | |
Another inter-conference battle, the Texans-Packers game will go a long way to determining the winner of both the AFC South and NFC North. According to our Elo ratings, the Texans are the ninth-worst team in the NFL, but luckily for them, they’re in the NFL’s worst division. The Packers are the best team Houston will face for the rest of the year — and the Packers aren’t even that good! — so a win here brings Houston’s chances all the way up to 85 percent.
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF WSH WINS | IF ARI WINS | SWING | |
| Washington | 52% | 74% | 36% | 38 | |
| Arizona | 5 | 1 | 9 | 8 | |
| N.Y. Giants | 73 | 68 | 76 | 7 | |
| Minnesota | 49 | 45 | 51 | 6 | |
| Tampa Bay | 27 | 24 | 29 | 5 | |
| Detroit | 71 | 69 | 73 | 4 | |
| Philadelphia | 8 | 6 | 9 | 3 | |
| Atlanta | 87 | 85 | 88 | 2 | |
Arizona’s playoff odds are down to just 5 percent, so the “swing” of this game is mostly driven by Washington. Basically the entire NFC is rooting for Arizona here, and this game makes a non-negligible difference to the playoff odds of the Giants, Vikings, Buccaneers, Lions, Eagles and Falcons.
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF DAL WINS | IF MIN WINS | SWING | |
| Minnesota | 49% | 31% | 69% | 39 | |
| Detroit | 71 | 76 | 66 | 9 | |
| Washington | 52 | 55 | 48 | 8 | |
| Green Bay | 17 | 21 | 13 | 8 | |
| N.Y. Giants | 73 | 75 | 71 | 4 | |
| Tampa Bay | 27 | 28 | 26 | 3 | |
Dallas still has a lot to play for — we give them an 86 percent chance of securing a first-round bye — but at 10-1, they’ve all but clinched a playoff spot, and this game won’t really affect their chances there. But Minnesota’s playoff hopes have been in freefall. With a 5-0 record going into Week 7, we gave them a 94 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s now down to 49 percent, and would drop to 31 percent with a loss to the Cowboys. Our pre-game odds have that matchup as essentially a coin flip, but they give Dallas a slight edge.
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Check out our latest NFL predictions.
