LeBron James’s postseason legend continues to grow with each passing year. In recent campaigns, the Cleveland Cavaliers star has even appeared to flip a switch in the playoffs and instantly perform at a higher level. Certainly he did last season, elevating his production markedly from the regular season,11 and he has shown signs of a boost so far this postseason as well.
Playoff LeBron — the destiny-fueled superhero sent to the postseason to capture the Larry O’Brien Trophy — is mostly an optical illusion to basketball fans. Over the course of James’s career, he’s pretty much played the same in the playoffs as we’d expect from his regular-season stats. But because James is so good, just maintaining his remarkable regular-season numbers is by itself a feat — and something that many other stars (past and present) have been incapable of doing.
To compare a player’s regular season and playoff production, I gathered advanced stats — including Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) and a composite “statistical plus/minus” (SPM) that blends the other two metrics together12 — for all NBA and ABA players since 1963.13 Then I tracked how much each player improved or declined when he reached the playoffs.14
The vast majority of NBA players play worse in the postseason, which makes sense given that the playoffs contain the league’s most difficult opponents. The typical player tends to see his PER drop by 1.1 points, his WS/48 by 0.028 points and his SPM by 1.1 points during the playoffs. James is not immune to this dynamic, but he’s managed to resist the drag of the playoffs more than most. Here are the best regular-season players in my sample, along with how their stats changed in the playoffs (through Sunday’s games):
| REGULAR SEASON | CHANGE IN PLAYOFFS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | PLAYOFF YRS | PER | WS/48 | SPM* | PER | WS/48 | SPM* | |
| Michael Jordan | 1985-98 | 28.8 | .275 | +7.5 | -0.2 | -.019 | -0.6 | |
| LeBron James | 2006-17 | 28.6 | .258 | +6.9 | -0.9 | -.021 | -0.8 | |
| Chris Paul | 2008-17 | 26.7 | .272 | +6.8 | -0.5 | -.054 | -2.0 | |
| Stephen Curry | 2013-17 | 26.7 | .259 | +6.5 | -4.1 | -.074 | -2.9 | |
| Kevin Durant | 2010-17 | 27.1 | .253 | +6.4 | -3.6 | -.077 | -3.0 | |
| David Robinson | 1990-03 | 25.5 | .245 | +6.4 | -2.4 | -.047 | -1.8 | |
| Shaquille O’Neal | 1994-11 | 27.4 | .219 | +5.8 | -1.3 | -.035 | -1.4 | |
| Wilt Chamberlain | 1964-73 | 23.9 | .239 | +5.8 | -1.9 | -.044 | -1.5 | |
| Tim Duncan | 1998-16 | 24.4 | .210 | +5.3 | -0.1 | -.018 | -0.8 | |
| Karl Malone | 1986-04 | 24.4 | .214 | +5.1 | -3.2 | -.075 | -2.8 | |
| Larry Bird | 1980-92 | 24.1 | .212 | +5.1 | -2.8 | -.040 | -1.7 | |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 2001-16 | 24.4 | .224 | +5.1 | -0.7 | -.037 | -1.4 | |
| Magic Johnson | 1980-96 | 23.9 | .222 | +5.1 | -1.0 | -.014 | -0.6 | |
| Charles Barkley | 1985-99 | 24.3 | .216 | +5.1 | -0.1 | -.024 | -1.0 | |
| Jerry West | 1963-74 | 23.5 | .226 | +5.0 | -0.3 | -.025 | -0.8 | |
| Average qualifier | 17.3 | .144 | +1.8 | -1.1 | -.028 | -1.1 | ||
Michael Jordan is always a popular comparison point for King James when it comes to playoff heroics. Jordan did retain more of his output in the playoffs than LeBron has over his career, but MJ is also the exception here — like he is in most basketball-related things. Contemporary stars Chris Paul, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant have all experienced far bigger drop-offs in the playoffs than James, as did legends of yesteryear such as Karl Malone and (gasp!) Larry Bird.15 All told, James’s regular-season-to-playoffs dip is roughly the same as Tim Duncan’s — pretty good company.
James’s ability to maintain his output in the playoffs is even more impressive when you consider that his regular-season numbers are really, really good. It’s easier to display postseason improvement when you are starting with a lower bar. The players who raised their production the most during the playoffs — think Pistons legend Isiah Thomas or ex-Warrior Baron Davis16 — tend to be moderately good, but not great, regular-season performers. Among players who retained as much of their regular-season selves in the playoffs as James, only Jordan played at a higher level during the regular season:
| REGULAR SEASON | CHANGE IN PLAYOFFS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | PLAYOFF YRS | PER | WS/48 | SPM* | PER | WS/48 | SPM* | |
| Michael Jordan | 1985-98 | 28.8 | .275 | +7.5 | -0.2 | -.019 | -0.6 | |
| LeBron James | 2006-17 | 28.6 | .258 | +6.9 | -0.9 | -.021 | -0.8 | |
| Magic Johnson | 1980-96 | 23.9 | .222 | +5.1 | -1.0 | -.014 | -0.6 | |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 1970-89 | 23.4 | .216 | +5.0 | -0.3 | -.022 | -0.7 | |
| Hakeem Olajuwon | 1985-02 | 24.4 | .184 | +4.5 | +1.2 | +.003 | +0.1 | |
| Kawhi Leonard | 2012-17 | 20.2 | .203 | +4.3 | +1.4 | +.012 | +0.5 | |
| Walt Frazier | 1968-75 | 20.0 | .203 | +3.9 | -0.1 | -.010 | -0.3 | |
| Bob Lanier | 1974-84 | 20.1 | .179 | +3.3 | +0.8 | -.002 | -0.1 | |
| Bill Russell | 1963-69 | 17.6 | .179 | +3.3 | +0.6 | -.021 | -0.4 | |
| Rick Barry | 1967-80 | 21.6 | .167 | +3.0 | +0.1 | -.013 | -0.5 | |
So, no, James isn’t Hakeem Olajuwon, who somehow managed to play better in the postseason than he did in the regular season. (Kawhi Leonard of the Spurs is adding to his own legend in that department as we speak.) But James’s regular-season numbers are also better than Hakeem’s, or Magic Johnson’s, or basically everyone else in NBA history. Whether it’s the regular season or the playoffs, you can pretty much expect the same LeBron. He’s great all the time.
Check out our NBA playoff predictions.