Same old, same old. The college football playoff committee had it easy this week. After a week of games where all their top teams won, they didn’t have to shake things up in their rankings much. The top five remain the same: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Iowa. After suffering crushing losses last week, Baylor and Stanford fell back in the rankings. Meanwhile, the Sooner state made headway: Oklahoma State and Oklahoma rose up to the No. 6 and No. 7 spots, respectively. But while the Big 12 looks ascendant, they both can’t stay there long: they play each other Thanksgiving weekend.
The FiveThirtyEight model has bad news for Notre Dame fans: last week it was Baylor that was projected to elbow out the Irish by season’s end; this week it’s Oklahoma. The model continues to think an undefeated or one-loss Big 12 champion will most likely surpass Notre Dame. Our model simulations — which predict where the committee will land in its final rankings on Dec. 6 — are shown in the following table:
| Team | Conf. Title | Playoff | Nat. Title | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Clemson 10-0 | 62% | 68% | 15% | |||||
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Alabama 9-1 | 61% | 63% | 19% | |||||
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Ohio State 10-0 | 45% | 62% | 18% | |||||
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Oklahoma 9-1 | 46% | 45% | 18% | |||||
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Notre Dame 9-1 | —a | 26% | 6% | |||||
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Oklahoma St. 10-0 | 35% | 25% | 5% | |||||
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Florida 9-1 | 35% | 23% | 4% | |||||
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Iowa 10-0 | 28% | 22% | 2% | |||||
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Baylor 8-1 | 14% | 16% | 6% | |||||
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Michigan St. 9-1 | 11% | 12% | 1% | |||||
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Stanford 8-2 | 44% | 11% | 2% | |||||
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Michigan 8-2 | 14% | 9% | 1% | |||||
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North Carolina 9-1 | 36% | 9% | 1% | |||||
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TCU 9-1 | 5% | 5% | 2% | |||||
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Utah 8-2 | 12% | 1% | <1% | |||||
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USC 7-3 | 34% | 1% | <1% | |||||
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Houston 10-0 | 39% | 1% | <1% | |||||
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Navy 8-1 | 22% | <1% | <1% | |||||
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Florida State 8-2 | 0% | <1% | <1% | |||||
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Mississippi 7-3 | 4% | <1% | <1% | |||||
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Wisconsin 8-2 | 1% | <1% | <1% | |||||
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Oregon 7-3 | 4% | <1% | <1% | |||||
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LSU 7-2 | 0% | <1% | <1% | |||||
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Northwestern 8-2 | 0% | <1% | <1% | |||||
 |
Memphis 8-2 | 0% | <1% | <1% | |||||
| College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Nov. 17. | |||||||||
Oklahoma might eventually edge out Notre Dame, but they have two awfully tough games remaining: against TCU this Saturday and on the road versus Oklahoma State. While the Sooners are our favorite for the fourth slot, the model still only gives them a 45 percent chance of making it in.
Lurking at the edges are a slew of hopefuls: Oklahoma State and Iowa, though each doesn’t have a loss, stand but a 25 percent and 22 percent chance to make it; one-loss stalwarts Florida, Baylor, and Michigan State — along with two-loss Stanford — all have above a 10 percent shot.
For those of you who want more nitty-gritty about our projections, check out our original methodology manifesto, as well as last week’s methodology update.