The first College Football Playoff rankings are out, and the selection committee ranked Clemson, LSU, Ohio State and Alabama as the top four teams, in that order, worthy of the playoff were it held today. But we at FiveThirtyEight want to look into the future. Our model (outlined in the table below) simulates the rest of the season to project which teams the committee will let into the playoff when it releases its final selections on Dec. 6. It expects that Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama and TCU, in that order, are most likely to make the cut. If you want to read more about how the model works, here’s Nate Silver’s explanation of its methodology. If you just want to get to the rankings, here they are:
| Team | Conf. Title | Playoff | Nat. Title | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Ohio State | 47% | 61% | 16% |
 |
Clemson | 56% | 51% | 12% |
 |
Alabama | 14% | 41% | 11% |
 |
TCU | 37% | 31% | 11% |
 |
Baylor | 32% | 31% | 13% |
 |
LSU | 22% | 30% | 8% |
 |
Notre Dame | — | 25% | 5% |
 |
Michigan State | 15% | 22% | 3% |
 |
Stanford | 46% | 19% | 3% |
 |
Florida | 41% | 18% | 4% |
 |
Oklahoma | 15% | 14% | 5% |
 |
Mississippi | 20% | 8% | 2% |
 |
Iowa | 25% | 7% | <1% |
 |
Michigan | 7% | 6% | <1% |
 |
Oklahoma St. | 15% | 6% | 1% |
 |
Utah | 18% | 6% | <1% |
 |
Memphis | 21% | 6% | <1% |
 |
Florida State | 13% | 5% | <1% |
 |
USC | 30% | 4% | 1% |
 |
Mississippi St. | <1% | 3% | <1% |
 |
Houston | 30% | 2% | <1% |
 |
UCLA | 5% | 1% | <1% |
 |
North Carolina | 23% | <1% | <1% |
 |
Toledo | 28% | <1% | <1% |
 |
Temple | 41% | <1% | <1% |
 |
Oregon | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 |
Wisconsin | 5% | <1% | <1% |
 |
Texas A&M | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 |
Arkansas | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 |
Penn State | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 |
Northwestern | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Read more: Our preview of this week’s college football games