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Fear The Cubs And Red Sox: Hot Takedown’s MLB Playoff Preview

Welcome to the latest episode of Hot Takedown, FiveThirtyEight’s sports podcast. On this week’s show (Oct. 4, 2016), we preview this season’s MLB playoffs with FiveThirtyEight’s Rob Arthur. First we take a look at the National League and wonder how the Chicago Cubs could be considered unlucky when they’ve been so good. Then we move […]

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Major League Baseball Is About To Get Random

Baseball’s playoffs are upon us once again, and as is the case every year, we don’t know much about what will happen. The postseason has a tendency to make fools of us all: Wild cards have won before, they will win again, and even the best team in the league doesn’t have much better than […]

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Major League Baseball Is About To Get Random

Baseball’s playoffs are upon us once again, and as is the case every year, we don’t know much about what will happen. The postseason has a tendency to make fools of us all: Wild cards have won before, they will win again, and even the best team in the league doesn’t have much better than […]

Continue reading



There’s A 10 Percent Chance Of A Three-Way MLB Wild-Card Tie

After all three teams lost Wednesday, the New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants remain locked in a three-way tie for the National League’s two wild-card slots. Our prediction model, which is based on a simulation that uses each team’s Elo rating, gives New York a 75 percent chance of grabbing at […]

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There’s A 10 Percent Chance Of A Three-Way MLB Wild-Card Tie

After all three teams lost Wednesday, the New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants remain locked in a three-way tie for the National League’s two wild-card slots. Our prediction model, which is based on a simulation that uses each team’s Elo rating, gives New York a 75 percent chance of grabbing at […]

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