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Which U.S. House Race Is The Best 2018 Bellwether?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Greetings, friends. It’s a snow-day politics chat! This week, we’re pilfering a great idea from RealClearPolitics elections analyst Sean Trende (dear readers, if you don’t read Trende, you should). Imagine you're placing a large bet on the […]

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What’s The Right Way To Interpret The Pennsylvania Special Election?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): HEYO! When this chat publishes, we’ll be about 36 hours removed from the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District (apparently won by Democrat Conor Lamb). That’s been more than enough time for narratives and lessons and […]

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The ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Could Turn A Democratic Wave Into A Tsunami

It’s a busy time of year, so we’ll keep this relatively short. But I wanted to echo and underscore a point made by FiveThirtyEight contributor Nathaniel Rakich in his article on Tuesday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. One reason that the results are especially scary for Republicans — Democrat Conor Lamb is the […]

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Should The GOP Move To The Middle To Keep The House?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): For a special lean-and-mean chat team today, our topic is: What should the Republican Party’s strategy be going into the 2018 midterms? This article from Politico, which led the site for a big chunk of Tuesday, got […]

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