When the Philadelphia Phillies take the field in Houston to start off the World Series on Friday, they’ll send Aaron Nola to the mound with the task of setting the tone. It’s a perfect fit — and not just because Nola led the team in pitching wins above replacement during the regular season. The 29-year-old […]
As hard as it can be to remember now, with the Houston Astros headed for their fourth World Series in six seasons, the franchise was once notable for its capacity for self-inflicted losing. As part of a radical rebuilding plan, Houston from 2011 to 2013 became just the seventh team since 1901 to pile up […]
After an MLB wild card weekend that scrambled the lower tier of the World Series odds, the division series offers four solid favorites — on paper, at least. According to our MLB forecast model, the top-seeded Houston Astros, L.A. Dodgers, New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves each have at least a 2-in-3 chance at moving […]
Baseball’s postseason is finally upon us, and that means it’s playoff prediction time for our MLB forecast model. Before first pitch in today’s wild card quadruple-header, let’s run through how our Elo-based projections see the October (and November) action playing out. Who’s favored in the wild card round? Elo ratings and series win probabilities for […]
A common gripe, as Major League Baseball’s postseason ballooned in recent years, has been that the lowered standard of admission would devalue and de-intensify the regular season. Gotta-have-it games, tough managerial decisions, final-out bursts of euphoria or despair — for the best teams, the teams that really matter, these sorts of things would be consigned […]