FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff forecast model is in some ways both my most favorite and my least favorite of the many statistical models we publish. That’s because, instead of trying to predict the games themselves — we mostly defer to ESPN’s Football Power Index for that — we try to predict the behavior of the […]
FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff forecast model is in some ways both my most favorite and my least favorite of the many statistical models we publish. That’s because, instead of trying to predict the games themselves — we mostly defer to ESPN’s Football Power Index for that — we try to predict the behavior of the […]
2017 College Football PredictionsUpdated after every game and new College Football Playoff selection committee ranking (or AP Top 25 poll before Oct. 31, when the first ranking is released) How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating[a][b]-based system to anticipate how the committee will […]
2017 College Football PredictionsUpdated after every game and new College Football Playoff selection committee ranking (or AP Top 25 poll before Oct. 31, when the first ranking is released) How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating[a][b]-based system to anticipate how the committee will […]
Welcome to the latest episode of Hot Takedown, FiveThirtyEight’s sports podcast. On this week’s show (Jan. 3, 2017), we take a look at the College Football Playoff and explore whether No. 2 Clemson can defeat No. 1 Alabama in Monday’s championship. Next, FiveThirtyEight’s Reuben Fischer-Baum drops by to discuss the NFL and how a plethora […]
