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The Government Shutdown Effect: Big In The Short Term, Small After That

The U.S. government is partially shutdown. The Senate couldn’t cobble together the necessary 60 votes to keep the government open. And the blame game has already begun: Republicans in Congress and the White House are trying to make “Schumer Shutdown” stick (after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer), and Democrats are calling it the “Trump Shutdown.” […]

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Politics Is More Partisan Now, But It’s Not More Divisive

We’re now one year into the Trump era, and politics seems more nasty, divided and polarized than ever. A government shutdown is imminent over immigration policy. Congress hasn’t passed a single, major bipartisan bill. President Trump’s approval rating among Democrats has fallen to 5 percent. Some reports suggest that a quarter of Americans have real […]

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How Trump Ranks In Popularity vs. Past Presidents

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is “Ordinary Girl” from the television show “Clueless.” Poll of the week The anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration is Saturday, and he is ending his first year on an upswing. The FiveThirtyEight Trump job approval tracker puts his approval rating at about 40 percent — […]

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There’s Been A Massive Shift To The Right In The Immigration Debate

President Trump’s disparaging comments in an Oval Office meeting last week about Haiti and “shithole” (or “shithouse”) African countries felt like the immigration debate had reached a new place. It has — but not just because of that meeting. There’s been a massive conservative shift in the ongoing debate over immigration. With Republicans in control […]

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What Was Most Surprising About Trump’s First Year?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Welcome, everyone, to our final chat before the one-year anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration!!! Or is it just “the anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration”? In any case … we’re going to mark the occasion by looking back […]

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