Last week, we published a statistical preview of the World Chess Championship in Sochi, Russia. I calculated, given their Elo ratings, that Magnus Carlsen was a roughly 84 percent favorite to defend his crown against challenger Viswanathan Anand. The match is underway. Anand just won the third game, tying the series — one win apiece […]
Last week, we published a statistical preview of the World Chess Championship in Sochi, Russia. I calculated, given their Elo ratings, that Magnus Carlsen was a roughly 84 percent favorite to defend his crown against challenger Viswanathan Anand. The match is underway. Anand just won the third game, tying the series — one win apiece […]
If you followed FiveThirtyEight’s coverage during the World Cup, you know that we’re big fans of the World Football Elo Ratings. They’re based on a relatively simple system developed by the physicist Arpad Elo to rate chess players. But they can be adapted fairly easily for other head-to-head competitions from baseball to backgammon. We thought […]
If you followed FiveThirtyEight’s coverage during the World Cup, you know that we’re big fans of the World Football Elo Ratings. They’re based on a relatively simple system developed by the physicist Arpad Elo to rate chess players. But they can be adapted fairly easily for other head-to-head competitions from baseball to backgammon. We thought […]
Each week throughout the NFL season, we’ll be publishing Elo ratings for teams and using them to simulate the remainder of the season, and calculate each team’s chances of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Read about our methodology for details about how the system works. Elo ratings have been applied in many […]
