Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the week The electorate in 2020 is likely to be similar to 2016’s. This should worry people in both parties — for different reasons, of course. Our poll of the week is not technically one poll, but an in-depth study that looks at the changing demographics […]
One of my least favorite questions is: “Did Russian interference cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election?” The question is newly relevant because of special counsel Robert Mueller’s indictment of 13 Russians on Friday on charges that they used a variety of shady techniques to discourage people from voting for Clinton and encourage them to vote […]
New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen’s retirement announcement this week wasn’t a game changer in the battle for control of the House of Representatives. Even before his announcement, Frelinghuysen, a Republican, was in danger of losing a re-election bid in the 11th Congressional District, which President Trump won by a mere 1 percentage point in 2016. […]
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Welcome, all! For debate today, an idea that’s been knocking around a lot since the government shutdown: That the Democratic Party is becoming more like the Republican Party. harry: I think it is. Chat over? natesilver (Nate […]
In the year since President Trump pulled off his stunning upset of Hillary Clinton, Democrats have blamed the result on all kinds of factors: James Comey’s letter, Russian hackers, voter suppression, Jill Stein’s candidacy and depressed African-American turnout, to name a few. The truth? In an election decided by fractions of percentage points, it’s easy […]