We rolled out our NFL Elo ratings last week, giving us a set of computer power ratings for each team, each week, going back to the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. There are a lot of cool things we can do with these numbers; for example, I used them Monday to quantify how upset-heavy Week 1 of […]
FiveThirtyEight is running a series of eight NFL previews, one division at a time, to highlight the numbers that may influence each team’s season. America’s favorite weekly soap opera is about to begin; get prepped. New England Patriots Expected wins (using implied power ratings from Las Vegas point spreads): 9.5 Playoff probability: 62 percent (49 […]
FiveThirtyEight is running a series of eight NFL previews, one division at a time, to highlight the numbers that may influence each team’s season. America’s favorite weekly soap opera is about to begin; get prepped. New England Patriots Expected wins (using implied power ratings from Las Vegas point spreads): 9.5 Playoff probability: 62 percent (49 […]
It’s NFL preseason time! Everyone … go about your business as before. Studies have shown that, at least in recent decades, the NFL preseason tells us basically nothing about the upcoming regular season. And so like most preseasons, the NFL warmup act gets little attention. But for teams that have changed quarterbacks from the previous […]
It’s NFL preseason time! Everyone … go about your business as before. Studies have shown that, at least in recent decades, the NFL preseason tells us basically nothing about the upcoming regular season. And so like most preseasons, the NFL warmup act gets little attention. But for teams that have changed quarterbacks from the previous […]
