Baseball returns this week for what we can all hope is a more normal season after last year’s abbreviated 60-game, expanded-playoffs pandemic campaign. Accordingly, we’ve launched our 2021 MLB forecast model, with win totals and playoff odds that look a little bit more regular than they did going into 2020. As always, we estimate each […]
It’s easy to understand the skepticism about the New York Mets signing James McCann this winter to a four-year, $40.6 million contract. After all, McCann turns 31 this season, and he has 7.2 wins above replacement for his career. J.T. Realmuto, New York’s target at catcher before signing McCann, has collected 19.8 career WAR. And […]
After MLB’s lukewarm interest in free agency the past few seasons, this winter could bring an even less active marketplace. COVID-19 slashed baseball revenues in 2020, and teams are expected to cut payroll next season, which could hurt the middle class of free agents particularly hard. But even during this recent trend away from high-dollar […]
There was no better pitcher in Major League Baseball over the last two seasons than Jacob deGrom, and in this shortened season he had taken his performance to another level. The New York Mets’ ace entered play Wednesday ranking first in the NL in ERA (1.67) and second among pitchers in wins above replacement (2.3). […]
Welcome to the second part of our 2020 baseball season breakdown, based on our MLB prediction model. To help make sense of the contenders and also-rans of this strange season, we plugged the shortened schedule into our forecast model and simulated it 100,000 times, tracking each team’s expected record and its odds of winning the […]