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The Bucs’ Defense Dares Opposing Offenses To Pass. So They Do.

The final four playoff quarterbacks may have been born in three different decades, but they do have a few things in common. Their offenses represent four of the top five teams in overall expected points added (EPA) per play and EPA per dropback, according to the nflfastR model, which aligns neatly with the ProFootballFocus claim […]

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Are Defensive Play-Callers Consistent Enough To Be Exploitable?

If NFL analytics is a set of festive Russian nesting dolls, the final pea-sized matryoshka is defense. We’re actually pretty good at understanding offensive skill position players at this point. When a quarterback change is made on a team, our models and the betting markets move in response. No Patrick Mahomes? “That’s bad for Kansas […]

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It’s Hard To Measure NFL Matchups, So We Built A Better Metric

The NFL is a league of matchups, and no matchup is more crucial to wins and losses than the battle between a quarterback and the pass defense. That’s important for more than just the coaches calling X’s and O’s: Each week, the media, betting markets and fantasy players all make predictions about which teams (and […]

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Exactly How Much Does A Great Pass Rush Hurt An Offense?

With the exception of the quarterback, there’s no position the NFL values more than the pass rusher. Over the past few years, teams have consistently spent high draft capital on defensive linemen who can pressure and sack the quarterback. In this year’s draft, Ohio State defensive end Chase Young was taken with the second overall […]

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Richard Sherman Is Elite, But Is He The Best Pass Defender?

Richard Sherman wants to be loved. Or perhaps just more loved. After all, in a comeback season at age 31, on the heels of a seemingly career-ending Achilles tear in 2017, the San Francisco 49ers cornerback was named to the Pro Bowl for the fifth time and as a second-team All-Pro, a more exclusive honor. […]

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