Sports – FiveThirtyEight — Win Probabilities RSS



Our New Live In-Game Win Probabilities Are Here For The NBA Playoffs

The NBA playoffs are almost here, with the play-in tournament tipping off later tonight. But while the regular season was careening toward a dramatic finish, we were hard at work creating a live in-game win probability model — and we’re pretty damn excited to share it. We officially added this model to our forecast page […]

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We’re Still Processing Week 15’s Most Mind-Blowing Finishes

maya (Maya Sweedler, editor): Quick show of hands, who else is still picking themselves up off the floor from Sunday? neil (Neil Paine, acting sports editor): maya: One day after the largest comeback in NFL history, Sunday’s games brought some of the wildest finishes, thrilling sequences and (sorry to New England) funniest game-losing plays […]

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The Ravens Should Have Gone For It

Stop me if you’ve heard this one: An NFL head coach decides to go for it on fourth down in a big, closely fought game. The team fails the attempt and goes on to lose the game. Fans are outraged, and media members are contemptuous. It’s a scene we’ve seen play out dozens of times […]

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The NFL Teams That Made Their Own Luck — And Misfortune — In 2021

“Why are we here?” Indianapolis Colts cornerback Kenny Moore wondered back in February. He wasn’t having an existential crisis. He was trying to figure out how he and five other Colts were together at the Pro Bowl, neither recovering from a playoff run nor preparing to play in Super Bowl LVl. It’s an annual offseason […]

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