The 2018 Red Sox Are Baseball’s Best Champions Since The 1998 Yankees

Oct 29, 2018

In the celebration Sunday after Boston pitcher Chris Sale struck out Manny Machado to end Game 5 of the World Series, clinching a title for the Red Sox, much was made about this being the best Boston team ever. That’s a topic we covered as well going into the series, but this team was also an all-time great squad, period. After all, the Red Sox won 108 regular-season games and went a scorching 11-3 during the playoffs.²³

So, we must ask: How does this Boston squad stack up against history’s greatest champions? Let’s put the Sox to the test using the same metrics we employed to judge another recent all-time champ, the 2016 Chicago Cubs. There, we looked at teams according to a handful of criteria:

Winning percentage. With a regular-season mark of .667, Boston ranks 17th all-time among eventual World Series winners. MLB hadn’t seen a 108-game winner since the 2001 Mariners, and no team that had won so much had captured the World Series since the 1998 Yankees. In other words, on wins alone, seasons like that of the 2018 Sox are exceedingly rare in baseball history.
Pythagorean record. Perhaps a better judge of a team’s performance than raw W-L record is its underlying run differential, as measured by the Pythagorean expectation. And by this standard, the 2018 Red Sox do drop down a bit — falling to 30th among all-time champs. According to Pythagoras, Boston really “only” played like a 103-win team that saw somewhat good fortune in close games.
Wins above replacement. Digging deeper into a team’s performance, we can also look at WAR (averaging together the versions found at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs) to get a sense of how well its roster played at a player-by-player level. For Boston, WAR per game splits the difference somewhat between winning percentage and Pythagorean record, ranking the 2018 Sox 27th among champions. Their 53.3 total WAR during the regular season was almost exactly the same as Houston’s last season.
Elo ratings. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we also have our own pet metric for judging a team’s performance — the Elo rating. In a nutshell, it tracks a team’s estimated skill level over time, updating after every game and accounting for things like home-field advantage and starting pitching in each contest. Just as my former colleague Reuben Fischer-Baum did when rating MLB teams a few years ago, here I’m blending a team’s final end-of-playoffs Elo with its peak and average daily Elo from throughout the season.²⁴ As we noted before the game, Boston ranks ninth all-time in final Elo, and its blended Elo comes in 12th among historical champs. Elo is the category in which Boston looks best, since it gives credit for both wins and margin of victory while also crediting the Red Sox for their outstanding playoff run.

Pulling it all together, we can add up a team’s ranking in each category — winning percentage, Pythagorean record, WAR and blended Elo — to get a master ranking of world champs since 1903:

Baseball’s greatest World Series champions

All-time best World Series winners, according to a mix of Elo ratings, winning percentage, run differential (Pythagorean record) and wins above replacement, 1903-2018

			Elo Rank				Stat Rank
	Year	Team	max	avg	final	blend	wpct	pyth	WAR	total
1	1927	Yankees	6	12	2	3	2	2	1	8
2	1939	Yankees	1	1	1	1	5	1	3	10
3	1998	Yankees	4	5	7	2	4	9	6	21
3	1944	Cardinals	2	2	25	4	12	3	2	21
5	1942	Cardinals	7	18	3	7	9	4	7	27
6	1909	Pirates	3	10	6	5	1	5	19	30
7	1905	Giants	16	7	14	13	10	6	4	33
8	1910	Athletics	17	20	10	18	13	7	5	43
9	1932	Yankees	11	6	5	6	6	23	11	46
10	1929	Athletics	15	8	17	15	7	13	15	50
11	1936	Yankees	18	17	13	17	17	14	9	57
12	1937	Yankees	9	3	12	9	22	14	16	61
13	1907	Cubs	13	4	11	10	3	11	41	65
14	1912	Red Sox	27	38	32	31	8	10	17	66
15	1970	Orioles	12	34	8	16	17	25	13	71
16	1911	Athletics	10	9	4	8	15	17	35	75
17	1975	Reds	20	19	18	21	17	19	24	81
18	2018	Red Sox	14	16	9	12	17	30	27	86
19	2016	Cubs	37	21	30	27	36	16	10	89
20	1953	Yankees	19	15	27	20	25	11	36	92
21	1938	Yankees	5	13	19	11	30	28	30	99
22	1915	Red Sox	32	36	31	32	15	35	20	102
23	1976	Reds	23	14	21	19	43	30	12	104
24	1961	Yankees	30	29	23	25	14	33	38	110
25	1986	Mets	59	33	51	43	17	30	21	111
26	1948	Indians	43	58	49	48	51	8	8	115
27	1928	Yankees	8	11	24	14	25	52	40	131
28	1919	Reds	28	46	26	30	10	18	74	132
29	1935	Tigers	22	27	43	26	61	23	31	141
30	1941	Yankees	24	25	29	24	25	47	48	144
31	1920	Indians	62	43	54	47	37	38	23	145
32	1930	Athletics	39	22	34	28	22	61	37	148
33	1917	White Sox	44	42	42	39	31	20	59	149
34	1955	Dodgers	58	37	67	58	35	45	14	152
34	1903	Americans	76	83	68	75	24	21	32	152
36	1908	Cubs	21	49	15	23	33	26	71	153
37	1968	Tigers	55	56	60	60	37	26	34	157
38	1947	Yankees	34	24	47	33	43	22	67	165
39	1956	Yankees	33	23	52	34	43	28	61	166
40	1950	Yankees	25	28	16	22	37	41	68	168
41	1940	Reds	71	54	73	65	29	35	42	171
43	2009	Yankees	38	52	28	37	37	80	18	172
43	1984	Tigers	56	51	55	53	34	56	29	172
43	1923	Yankees	65	41	59	57	32	40	43	172
45	2017	Astros	31	32	61	38	53	58	28	177
46	2007	Red Sox	26	60	20	35	84	45	22	186
47	1931	Cardinals	36	40	37	36	25	38	90	189
48	1943	Yankees	52	39	44	42	37	73	39	191
49	1913	Athletics	41	26	69	45	49	34	70	198
50	1954	Giants	67	74	56	67	43	37	52	199
51	2002	Angels	35	75	35	49	66	41	49	205
51	1952	Yankees	50	44	46	44	56	50	55	205
53	1951	Yankees	54	35	48	40	37	57	75	209
54	1977	Yankees	70	72	74	70	56	59	26	211
55	1946	Cardinals	61	50	58	55	48	50	64	217
56	2013	Red Sox	47	86	38	63	77	53	25	218
57	1999	Yankees	29	47	22	29	71	75	47	222
58	1922	Giants	40	30	64	46	75	55	54	230
59	1978	Yankees	51	63	41	54	65	63	51	233
60	1958	Yankees	46	45	87	62	81	47	44	234
61	1949	Yankees	57	31	50	41	43	53	98	235
61	1925	Pirates	60	48	63	59	54	59	63	235
64	1971	Pirates	69	62	71	69	77	47	46	239
64	1957	Braves	64	64	65	66	56	64	53	239
64	1921	Giants	63	55	53	56	63	41	79	239
66	2004	Red Sox	42	71	33	50	71	69	50	240
66	1972	Athletics	84	65	86	78	76	41	45	240
68	1960	Pirates	94	81	107	95	56	69	33	253
69	1989	Athletics	48	61	39	51	66	69	73	259
70	1966	Orioles	66	53	81	68	70	65	58	261
71	1967	Cardinals	81	85	79	81	49	67	65	262
72	1995	Braves	68	59	57	64	52	86	77	279
73	1983	Orioles	45	67	36	52	71	77	80	280
74	1934	Cardinals	75	87	66	76	54	79	83	292
75	1979	Pirates	53	78	45	61	71	82	81	295
76	1924	Senators	86	89	83	87	81	77	57	302
77	1981	Dodgers	93	73	92	85	97	61	60	303
78	1906	White Sox	72	82	62	71	61	73	99	304
79	1914	Braves	49	111	40	72	63	85	97	317
80	2001	Dbacks	88	84	78	83	98	81	56	318
81	1974	Athletics	87	68	84	80	109	66	66	321
82	1973	Athletics	82	66	91	79	92	75	76	322
82	1933	Giants	83	76	96	84	77	69	92	322
84	1993	Blue Jays	79	79	76	77	88	97	62	324
85	1962	Yankees	74	57	88	73	84	84	87	328
86	2005	White Sox	80	92	75	82	66	95	88	331
87	1918	Red Sox	101	77	99	94	83	68	95	340
88	1969	Mets	77	112	70	91	56	90	104	341
89	1963	Dodgers	96	88	90	93	66	92	93	344
90	1992	Blue Jays	102	96	98	99	84	96	69	348
91	1991	Twins	98	98	101	101	88	88	72	349
92	1965	Dodgers	100	99	95	98	77	91	84	350
93	2008	Phillies	90	94	80	89	98	89	78	354
94	2010	Giants	85	101	77	90	98	86	85	359
94	1916	Red Sox	78	70	72	74	87	97	101	359
96	1926	Cardinals	91	90	85	92	94	82	94	362
97	2015	Royals	95	80	89	88	88	100	108	384
98	1988	Dodgers	106	102	100	104	91	94	100	389
99	1990	Reds	109	97	104	107	105	93	86	391
100	1996	Yankees	105	93	106	102	98	103	89	392
101	1980	Phillies	111	104	108	110	105	99	82	396
102	2012	Giants	92	105	82	96	92	103	107	398
104	1982	Cardinals	99	91	94	97	98	101	106	402
104	1964	Cardinals	103	106	105	108	96	107	91	402
104	1945	Tigers	108	95	103	103	95	102	102	402
106	2003	Marlins	104	109	97	105	105	108	96	414
106	2000	Yankees	73	69	110	86	112	111	105	414
108	2011	Cardinals	97	103	93	100	109	106	103	418
109	1997	Marlins	112	107	111	112	98	103	111	424
110	1985	Royals	107	108	102	109	105	110	109	433
111	1959	Dodgers	113	113	113	113	104	112	110	439
112	2014	Giants	110	110	109	111	111	109	112	443
113	2006	Cardinals	89	100	112	106	114	113	113	446
114	1987	Twins	114	114	114	114	113	114	114	455

Show more rows

According to this measure, the 2018 Red Sox just edge out the 2016 Cubs (a team built by former Boston general manager Theo Epstein) to take 18th place among all-time champs. That also puts them right next to the 1975 Cincinnati Reds — the best version of Cincy’s “Big Red Machine” dynasty — and makes them the second highest-ranking World Series winner since the ’70s, trailing only the 1998 Yankees.

Sure, you can complain about tanking having helped to produce an imbalanced era where the elite teams are vastly better than the bottom-feeders. But even so, this Red Sox season was historic. And unlike its two championship predecessors — the Cubs and Astros — Boston didn’t really bottom out to help get there. The Red Sox finished with a truly bad record only once since last winning the World Series in 2013, and even that was only an ordinary-bad season (71 wins), not the sub-60-win atrocities some of today’s tankers are forcing their fans to endure.

But maybe the greatest testament to the team built by Dave Dombrowski, Boston’s president of baseball operations, was how many different contributions it received along the way to the title. At the top, there was American League MVP favorite Mookie Betts, who had 10.6 WAR during the regular season — one of the best individual performances ever by a player on an eventual championship club:

The best individual championship campaigns

Most wins above replacement in a single season for players who ended the year on a team that would go on to win the World Series, 1903-2018

				Wins above replacement
	Player	Season	Team	Batting	Pitching	Total
1	Babe Ruth	1923	NYY	14.5	0.0	14.5
2	Babe Ruth	1927	NYY	12.7	0.0	12.7
3	Lou Gehrig	1927	NYY	12.2	0.0	12.2
4	Mickey Mantle	1956	NYY	11.4	0.0	11.4
5	Joe Morgan	1975	CIN	11.0	0.0	11.0
6	Lou Boudreau	1948	CLE	10.6	0.0	10.6
7	Mookie Betts	2018	BOS	10.6	0.0	10.6
8	Hal Newhouser	1945	DET	0.7	9.8	10.5
9	Willie Mays	1954	NYG	10.4	0.0	10.4
10	Mickey Mantle	1961	NYY	10.4	0.0	10.4

Yet, before Betts homered to give Boston a 3-1 lead in Game 5, he was hitting .200 in the postseason and was 4 for 21 in the World Series. Boston was so deep, top to bottom, that it didn’t even need its MVP to play like an MVP. J.D. Martinez, who would have contended for MVP himself if Betts and Mike Trout were not so historically dominant, had an .881 OPS in the World Series. Reliever Joe Kelly appeared in every game of the series, refusing to yield a single run in six important innings. Much-maligned starter David Price turned around a disastrous beginning to his postseason with four straight rock-solid outings,²⁵ earning his second victory of the World Series with a win in Game 5.

And none of those guys were even named series MVP! That nod went to journeyman hitter Steve Pearce, who didn’t join the Red Sox until a June 28 trade brought him over from the Toronto Blue Jays. After murdering the Yankees in both the regular season and the playoffs, Pearce took home World Series MVP honors with a 1.667 OPS and three homers against the Dodgers. Even in a universe where Edgar Renteria and Pat Borders have won that award, Pearce might be the single most random player ever to emerge as World Series MVP, in terms of just how little he’d done in his career before shining on the game’s biggest stage:²⁶

None of that matters now, though. Pearce and the rest of the 2018 Red Sox are champions, and they can take their rightful place among the best World Series winners in history. As my ESPN colleague Bradford Doolittle wrote last week, Boston’s performance in 2019 and beyond will help further tell us where this group belongs in the context of all-time great team runs. But in terms of one-year performances only, this Red Sox season stands right up to the best the game has had to offer.

Tags: 2018 World Series Boston Red Sox Chris Sale David Price J.D. Martinez MLB Mookie Betts World Series