MLB

The Astros Are Chasing History. But The Phillies Know How To Pull A Historic Upset.

By Neil Paine

Oct. 27, 2022, at 2:35 PM

On paper, this year’s World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies looks like a gigantic mismatch. The Astros won 106 games during the regular season, with a plus-219 run differential, 57.7 wins above replacement²³ and a 1589 Elo rating; the Phillies won 87 with a plus-62 differential, 42.0 WAR and a 1547 Elo. Based on a composite of the differences in those four categories, this is the seventh-most lopsided World Series matchup (on paper) since 1903:

Astros-Phillies is one of the most imbalanced World Series

Every World Series matchup in history based on an overall lopsidedness ranking of four factors: pre-series Elo rating, regular season win percentage, regular season run differential and regular season wins above replacement

			Lopsidedness Ranking
Year▲▼	Favorite▲▼	Underdog▲▼	Elo▲▼	W%▲▼	RPG Diff▲▼	WAR▲▼	OVR▲▼
1906	Cubs	White Sox	1	1	3	4	1
1927	Yankees	Pirates	12	5	2	2	2
1932	Yankees	Cubs	5	3	6	10	3
1944	Cardinals	Browns	11	4	8	1	3
1939	Yankees	Reds	2	18	1	5	5
1998	Yankees	Padres	6	7	7	6	5
2022	Astros	Phillies	17	2	12	11	7
1984	Tigers	Padres	14	15	19	8	8
1975	Reds	Red Sox	8	17	11	26	9
1936	Yankees	Giants	21	22	4	21	10
1961	Yankees	Reds	4	25	13	30	11
1905	Giants	Athletics	16	24	16	23	12
1945	Cubs	Tigers	19	32	18	13	13
2006	Tigers	Cardinals	26	20	22	17	14
2020	Dodgers	Rays	15	40	5	28	15
1985	Cardinals	Royals	24	30	23	14	16
1995	Indians	Braves	31	21	15	27	17
1973	Athletics	Mets	36	19	27	12	17
1969	Orioles	Mets	44	37	10	3	17
1986	Mets	Red Sox	23	13	34	25	20
2016	Cubs	Indians	33	36	14	15	21
1990	Athletics	Reds	9	14	50	34	22
2019	Astros	Nationals	73	10	21	7	23
1938	Yankees	Cubs	29	26	17	40	24
2011	Rangers	Cardinals	20	56	33	9	25
1907	Cubs	Tigers	18	8	74	19	26
1970	Orioles	Reds	3	58	26	35	27
1909	Pirates	Tigers	22	11	39	53	28
1954	Indians	Giants	13	9	54	56	29
1950	Yankees	Phillies	7	46	20	61	30
1988	Athletics	Dodgers	25	34	38	37	30
1974	Dodgers	Athletics	41	16	36	42	32
2003	Yankees	Marlins	53	30	35	18	33
1987	Cardinals	Twins	52	28	24	41	34
2009	Yankees	Phillies	34	28	55	33	35
1908	Cubs	Tigers	10	38	53	51	36
1937	Yankees	Giants	49	53	9	43	37
1983	Orioles	Phillies	37	41	43	36	38
1943	Cardinals	Yankees	28	45	46	39	39
1915	Red Sox	Phillies	35	12	60	57	40
2007	Red Sox	Rockies	67	50	32	16	41
1933	Senators	Giants	30	39	48	55	42
1914	Athletics	Braves	57	63	29	29	43
1929	Athletics	Cubs	47	42	47	44	44
1920	Indians	Robins	62	65	41	24	45
1963	Yankees	Dodgers	32	62	45	54	46
1971	Orioles	Pirates	27	49	72	46	47
1934	Tigers	Cardinals	66	61	31	38	48
1959	White Sox	Dodgers	39	44	59	58	49
1968	Tigers	Cardinals	42	55	52	52	50
1989	Athletics	Giants	40	48	66	60	51
1948	Indians	Braves	56	66	28	66	52
1967	Cardinals	Red Sox	51	33	71	63	53
2018	Red Sox	Dodgers	61	6	67	86	54
1919	Reds	White Sox	38	35	57	93	55
1947	Yankees	Dodgers	55	79	25	68	56
1940	Reds	Tigers	64	23	82	65	57
1964	Yankees	Cardinals	48	56	40	91	58
2021	Astros	Braves	104	52	49	31	59
1931	Athletics	Cardinals	108	43	69	20	60
2000	Mets	Yankees	43	51	79	79	61
1996	Braves	Yankees	75	75	61	45	62
1976	Reds	Yankees	46	78	51	84	63
1982	Brewers	Cardinals	81	82	37	59	63
1928	Yankees	Cardinals	69	54	63	74	65
1921	Yankees	Giants	77	73	64	49	66
1965	Twins	Dodgers	68	68	42	99	67
1949	Dodgers	Yankees	87	92	68	32	68
1956	Yankees	Dodgers	88	74	30	87	68
1980	Royals	Phillies	70	58	73	85	70
1930	Athletics	Cardinals	115	27	102	47	71
2004	Cardinals	Red Sox	90	47	76	83	72
2013	Red Sox	Cardinals	106	92	80	22	73
1913	Giants	Athletics	59	60	110	73	74
1911	Athletics	Giants	72	76	56	102	75
1953	Dodgers	Yankees	80	72	84	71	76
1924	Giants	Senators	89	84	44	90	76
2008	Rays	Phillies	79	69	96	64	78
1957	Yankees	Braves	84	80	70	78	79
1935	Cubs	Tigers	63	64	91	96	80
2014	Royals	Giants	71	91	105	48	81
2001	Diamondbacks	Yankees	96	111	58	50	81
1952	Yankees	Dodgers	54	98	87	80	83
1993	Blue Jays	Phillies	45	100	108	69	84
1999	Braves	Yankees	101	67	80	75	85
2002	Angels	Giants	93	77	62	92	86
2015	Royals	Mets	99	69	78	81	87
1912	Red Sox	Giants	82	88	86	77	88
1926	Cardinals	Yankees	50	103	85	97	89
1917	White Sox	Giants	86	87	75	88	90
1925	Pirates	Senators	78	104	65	95	91
1978	Yankees	Dodgers	98	71	88	94	92
1992	Braves	Blue Jays	83	86	77	106	93
2017	Dodgers	Astros	74	83	90	108	94
1958	Braves	Yankees	65	92	116	89	95
1981	Yankees	Dodgers	85	109	101	70	96
1903	Pirates	Americans	58	97	106	105	97
1972	Athletics	Reds	111	105	89	67	98
1977	Dodgers	Yankees	91	102	83	104	99
1942	Cardinals	Yankees	95	80	104	103	100
1946	Cardinals	Red Sox	60	116	109	100	101
1997	Indians	Marlins	114	113	97	62	102
2010	Rangers	Giants	92	100	94	101	103
1955	Yankees	Dodgers	76	107	95	110	104
1951	Giants	Yankees	109	99	112	72	105
1941	Yankees	Dodgers	94	89	100	111	106
2012	Tigers	Giants	112	115	93	76	107
1966	Dodgers	Orioles	100	108	111	82	108
1960	Yankees	Pirates	107	84	103	113	109
1910	Cubs	Athletics	103	95	98	117	110
1922	Yankees	Giants	110	90	117	98	111
1916	Red Sox	Robins	97	106	113	112	112
1991	Braves	Twins	118	96	99	118	113
1923	Giants	Yankees	102	110	107	115	114
2005	Astros	White Sox	116	118	92	109	115
1979	Pirates	Orioles	105	114	114	116	116
1962	Yankees	Giants	113	112	115	114	117
1918	Red Sox	Cubs	117	117	118	107	118

Show more rows

That helps explain why the Astros also have a sizable 67 percent championship probability going into the series, according to our MLB forecast model. Since we started making predictions back in 2015, only one World Series — 2020, when the L.A. Dodgers were 69 percent favorites over the Tampa Bay Rays — saw the favorite carry better odds heading into Game 1 than Houston has right now:

Houston is among the biggest favorites of the Elo era

Highest pre-World Series championship odds for favorites, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Elo-based model, 2015-22

	Favorite		Underdog
Year	Team	Elo	Team	Elo	Favorite Odds
2020	Dodgers	1609	Rays	1564	68.7%
2022	Astros	1589	Phillies	1547	67.4
2016	Cubs	1589	Indians	1556	63.0
2019	Astros	1593	Nationals	1579	59.9
2018	Red Sox	1600	Dodgers	1582	59.7
2017	Dodgers	1585	Astros	1572	55.4
2015	Royals	1549	Mets	1542	54.5
2021	Astros	1571	Braves	1565	50.3

Historically, massive favorites according to the composite method tend to win far more often than not. Nine of the 10 most lopsided World Series went to the favored team — granting that the only exception was No. 1 on the list, when the White Sox bested the uptown rival Cubs in 1906 — and so did 14 of the top 20. More recently, however, things have been a little less predictable. In the FiveThirtyEight Elo era, favorites are 4-3 (even though teams with 60-plus percent chances are 2-0).

So the Phillies face a big gap in credentials on paper. But they are not hopeless. After all, Philadelphia already pulled off one of the biggest upsets in division series history when it knocked off the 101-win Atlanta Braves — a team with an even larger pre-series Elo edge over Philly (48.7 points) than the Astros currently have (42.9).²⁴ And the Phillies’ hopes come down to a few areas where they may genuinely have an advantage against the business-like buzzsaw that is Houston.

The first of those is on offense. While the Astros boast dangerous slugger Yordan Álvarez — plus a lineup deep enough to average a very respectable 4.5 runs per game in the ALCS even as the New York Yankees held Álvarez to a downright mortal .675 OPS — the Phillies’ lineup has been on another level this postseason. They lead all playoff teams in runs scored (57), runs per game (5.18, more than a half-run better than any other team), slugging percentage (.442) and are second only to the Toronto Blue Jays — who played just two games before getting eliminated — in OPS (.749). Among hitters with at least 25 plate appearances, nobody in MLB has a better OPS than Bryce Harper’s 1.351 mark; in fact, that’s the 18th-best mark for any qualified hitter in a single postseason ever.

And the scary thing is that, even if Harper regresses some, a number of Philadelphia hitters have room to improve on their postseason numbers to date: Eight of their 10 most-used hitters in the playoffs have a lower OPS this postseason than during the regular season (with Harper and Kyle Schwarber being the only exceptions). If the Phillies can continue their scoring barrage, they will never be outside of striking distance in a game — just ask the San Diego Padres, who could not put the lid on Philly’s offense long enough to hold multiple leads during the late stages of the NLCS.

The other major area where Philadelphia may have an edge on Houston is in the starting rotation. Yes, Houston did get the most WAR from starting pitchers of any team during the regular season, with Philly sitting at No. 3 behind the Astros and Dodgers. But in the playoffs, the Phillies’ aces have shown they can stand toe-to-toe with Houston’s top arms. Philadelphia’s starters collectively have a lower postseason WHIP than Houston’s (0.86 versus 1.10), and three of the four likely Philly starters have a lower WHIP than their starting counterpart on the Astros — Aaron Nola (1.10) versus Justin Verlander (1.50) in Game 1; Zack Wheeler (0.51) versus Framber Valdez (0.87) in Game 2; and Noah Syndergaard (0.75) versus Lance McCullers Jr. (1.18) in Game 4.²⁵

Philly will need to lean heavily on the twin pillars of slugging and starting pitching, because Houston looks better in just about every other area. Defensively, it’s not even a contest (and we wouldn’t expect it to be), as the Astros ranked No. 5 in fielding runs above average²⁶ during the regular season while the Phillies ranked 28th. And although the much-maligned Philadelphia bullpen has improved from its perennially abominable reputation in previous seasons — or even earlier this season — it has still lagged behind the Astros during both the regular season (Houston was No. 3 in relief WAR; Philly was No. 12) and the postseason.

All of this makes sense: Houston is plainly the better all-around team on paper. Based on game-by-game odds, the Astros even have a 12 percent chance of sweeping the series and going undefeated in the entire postseason, a feat not accomplished since 1976. But that doesn’t mean the Phillies don’t have a chance. After upset World Series losses in 2019 and 2021, the Astros should know by now that every Fall Classic underdog has its day — a truism more accurate now than ever.

Check out our latest MLB predictions.