EDITOR’S NOTE (July 6, 2018, 2 p.m.): On June 20, about a week before the annual update of our CARMELO NBA player projections, we published this article using CARMELO’s preliminary data for players who were set to be selected in the NBA draft. In our haste, we failed to notice a problem with our file of NCAA player statistics. The file was compiled from multiple data providers, and the providers used different conventions to list certain statistics such as a player’s true shooting percentage. In particular, for some years, the statistics were listed as percentages (e.g., 51.2 percent), while for others, they were listed as decimals (e.g., 0.512).
This made the rookie projections that we published in the June 20 article a little weird. Because some categories were affected and others were not, CARMELO tended to emphasize unaffected categories such as height, weight, age and minutes played when selecting comparable players. (We discovered this issue and corrected it before we published the final version of CARMELO.) For the most part, the erroneous projections were fairly similar to the corrected ones — both versions like 76ers draft pick Zhaire Smith, for example. But there are some exceptions. Kentucky’s Kevin Knox, the Knicks’ first-round selection, graded out reasonably well in the buggy version of the projections, but the new, corrected version views him as a high-risk, medium-reward prospect — not hopeless, but not a good value with the No. 9 pick.
The original article has been rewritten to reflect the correct data and projections. The projections in this article differ very slightly from the ones on the CARMELO player pages because they use scouting rankings rather than a player’s draft position, as our official CARMELO projections do.
We usually don’t release our CARMELO NBA projections until after the NBA draft. But this year, in an effort to procrastinate from other modeling-related tasks,27 I finished them a little early. We’ll publish the complete set of CARMELO projections later this month, but with the draft scheduled for Thursday night, I wanted to share the system’s take on the best NCAA prospects.
Our methodology for CARMELO is pretty much the same as last year, with only minor tweaks. It works by identifying statistically comparable players — for instance, John Wall is currently similar to Detroit Pistons Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas and to Deron Williams. For NBA veterans, we use a database of player statistics since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, and for rookies, we use a database of NCAA statistics since 2002, adjusted for pace and opponent strength, as provided to us by ESPN Stats & Information Group. The rookie projections also account for — indeed, heavily emphasize — where in the draft each player was selected. Because the 2018 draft hasn’t taken place yet, we can’t use that variable to evaluate this year’s prospects, so for now, I’ve used scouting rankings for both current and historical players.28
As I said, the changes from last year’s model are pretty minor, but one of them is potentially relevant in the context of this year’s draft, which is heavy on big men, including traditional centers such as Arizona’s Deandre Ayton. As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has found, it’s become easier in recent seasons for teams to find once-desirable big men on the waiver wire or available for the minimum salary; the former All-Star center Roy Hibbert, who didn’t play at all in the NBA last year, is one perfect example. After evaluating the performance of players on minimum salaries over the past four years, we now use position-based replacement levels,29 which reflect that it takes a little bit more for big men to generate surplus value in the NBA than it does for guards and wings.
One last important warning: This list does not include projections for European players (so no Luka Doncic) or for other players who did not play NCAA basketball for some reason. Also, since Michael Porter Jr. played in only three NCAA games as a result of injury, we don’t project him on the basis of his NCAA statistics.30
At any rate, here goes: The top prospects as projected by CARMELO, non-Doncic, non-Porter edition. Players are ranked by their upside wins above replacement, a version of WAR that treats below-replacement-level seasons as zero instead.31
‘Stats + Scouts’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft
Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr.
Player | Scout Rank | Pos. | Age on 2/1/19 | UPSIDE WAR THRU 2025 | Top Comps | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mohamed Bamba | 3 | C | 20.7 | 21.8 | Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Derrick Favors |
2 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | 4 | C | 19.4 | 18.8 | Myles Turner, Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors |
3 | Deandre Ayton | 1 | C | 20.5 | 17.3 | Jahlil Okafor, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love |
4 | Zhaire Smith | 16 | SF | 19.7 | 15.0 | Brandan Wright, Malik Beasley, Kevon Looney |
5 | Wendell Carter Jr. | 7 | C | 19.8 | 14.7 | Noah Vonleh, Derrick Favors, Julius Randle |
6 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 10 | SG | 20.6 | 14.1 | Tyler Ennis, Wade Baldwin IV, Russell Westbrook |
7 | De’Anthony Melton | 24 | SG | 20.7 | 13.8 | Eric Bledsoe, Wade Baldwin IV, Patrick McCaw |
8 | Trae Young | 8 | PG | 20.4 | 12.3 | Dennis Smith Jr., Cameron Payne, D’Angelo Russell |
9 | Troy Brown | 18 | SG | 19.5 | 11.3 | Xavier Henry, Maurice Harkless, Justise Winslow |
10 | Marvin Bagley III | 5 | C | 19.9 | 11.2 | Julius Randle, Henry Ellenson, Tobias Harris |
11 | Mikal Bridges | 14 | SF | 22.4 | 10.2 | Chris Singleton, Tyler Lydon, Sam Dekker |
12 | Robert Williams | 12 | C | 21.3 | 10.0 | Cole Aldrich, John Henson, Ed Davis |
13 | Josh Okogie | 25 | SG | 20.4 | 7.9 | Alec Burks, Gary Harris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
14 | Kevin Huerter | 20 | SG | 20.4 | 7.3 | Jeremy Lamb, Patrick McCaw, Doron Lamb |
15 | Lonnie Walker IV | 13 | SG | 20.1 | 7.1 | Xavier Henry, Avery Bradley, Malik Beasley |
16 | Miles Bridges | 15 | PF | 20.9 | 6.5 | Jordan Hamilton, Ryan Anderson, Luke Babbitt |
17 | Collin Sexton | 11 | PG | 20.1 | 6.4 | De’Aaron Fox, Jerryd Bayless, Dennis Smith Jr. |
18 | Jarred Vanderbilt | 56 | SF | 19.8 | 6.2 | Tony Bradley, Cliff Alexander, Harry Giles |
19 | Jacob Evans | 30 | SF | 21.6 | 5.7 | Wayne Ellington, Allen Crabbe, Sam Dekker |
20 | Jevon Carter | 34 | PG | 23.4 | 5.5 | Shabazz Napier, Frank Mason III, Paul Delaney III |
21 | Kevin Knox | 9 | PF | 19.5 | 4.7 | Tobias Harris, Thaddeus Young, Aaron Gordon |
22 | Bruce Brown Jr. | 28 | SG | 22.5 | 4.6 | Will Barton, Malcolm Lee, Glen Rice Jr. |
23 | Gary Trent Jr. | 39 | SG | 20.0 | 3.9 | James Young, Malachi Richardson, Malik Beasley |
24 | Donte DiVincenzo | 26 | PG | 22.0 | 3.3 | Malcolm Lee, Tyler Dorsey, Michael Qualls |
25 | Jerome Robinson | 17 | PG | 21.9 | 3.3 | Klay Thompson, Dominique Jones, Chase Budinger |
26 | Khyri Thomas | 31 | SG | 22.7 | 3.0 | Norman Powell, Wayne Ellington, Glen Rice Jr. |
27 | Ray Spalding | 52 | PF | 21.9 | 2.8 | Richard Solomon, Derrick Brown, Alade Aminu |
28 | Melvin Frazier | 32 | SF | 22.4 | 2.6 | Glen Rice Jr., L.J. Peak, J.P. Tokoto |
29 | Trevon Duval | 53 | PG | 20.5 | 2.5 | Marquis Teague, Javaris Crittenton, Eric Bledsoe |
30 | Omari Spellman | 43 | PF | 21.5 | 2.5 | D.J. Wilson, T.J. Leaf, Cameron Oliver |
31 | Gary Clark | 57 | PF | 24.2 | 2.5 | Trevor Booker, Melvin Ejim, Larry Nance Jr. |
32 | Chandler Hutchison | 33 | SF | 22.8 | 2.5 | Gerald Henderson, Dillon Brooks, Quincy Pondexter |
33 | Hamidou Diallo | 37 | SG | 20.5 | 2.2 | Zach LaVine, Malik Beasley, Frank Jackson |
34 | Aaron Holiday | 22 | PG | 22.3 | 2.2 | Demetrius Jackson, Ray McCallum, Tyshawn Taylor |
35 | Kevin Hervey | 46 | SF | 22.6 | 2.1 | Landry Fields, Alec Peters, Will Daniels |
36 | Grayson Allen | 27 | SG | 23.3 | 2.1 | Joe Harris, Isaiah Canaan, Nolan Smith |
37 | Bonzie Colson | 68 | PF | 23.1 | 2.0 | Perry Ellis, Matt Howard, Wayne Chism |
38 | Rawle Alkins | 48 | SG | 21.3 | 1.9 | Vander Blue, L.J. Peak, Michael Qualls |
39 | Shake Milton | 40 | SG | 22.3 | 1.9 | Allen Crabbe, Nick Johnson, Wayne Selden |
40 | Keita Bates-Diop | 29 | PF | 23.0 | 1.7 | Justin Harper, Robert Carter Jr., Quincy Pondexter |
41 | Tony Carr | 54 | PG | 21.3 | 1.7 | Sylven Landesberg, Shelvin Mack, Armon Johnson |
42 | Kenrich Williams | 63 | PF | 24.2 | 1.6 | Melvin Ejim, Dorian Finney-Smith, Larry Nance Jr. |
43 | Landry Shamet | 49 | PG | 21.9 | 1.5 | Tyler Dorsey, Andrew Harrison, Tim Quarterman |
44 | Jalen Brunson | 35 | PG | 22.4 | 1.4 | J’Covan Brown, A.J. Price, Shelvin Mack |
45 | Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk | 59 | SG | 21.6 | 1.4 | Wayne Ellington, Hollis Thompson, Wayne Selden |
46 | Chimezie Metu | 45 | C | 21.9 | 1.4 | Richaun Holmes, Gani Lawal, Richard Hendrix |
47 | Devonte’ Graham | 44 | PG | 23.9 | 1.3 | Marcus Paige, Frank Mason III, Ben Hansbrough |
48 | Moritz Wagner | 36 | C | 21.8 | 1.1 | Justin Harper, Ben Bentil, Kyle Kuzma |
49 | Justin Jackson | 41 | PF | 22.0 | 1.1 | Jarell Martin, Ben Bentil, Tony Mitchell |
50 | Theo Pinson | 70 | SG | 23.2 | 1.0 | DeAndre Liggins, Tim Quarterman, Brad Wanamaker |
51 | Keenan Evans | 72 | PG | 22.4 | 1.0 | Nick Johnson, Brandon Paul, J’Covan Brown |
52 | Vince Edwards | 65 | PF | 22.8 | 0.9 | Chandler Parsons, Solomon Hill, Da’Sean Butler |
53 | Malik Newman | 47 | SG | 21.9 | 0.9 | Tyler Dorsey, Wayne Ellington, Jodie Meeks |
54 | DJ Hogg | 60 | PF | 22.4 | 0.9 | Hollis Thompson, Tony Snell, Wayne Selden |
55 | Alize Johnson | 61 | PF | 22.8 | 0.8 | Kyle Kuzma, Pascal Siakam, James Webb III |
56 | Devon Hall | 51 | SG | 23.6 | 0.8 | Courtney Fells, Gilbert Brown, Norman Powell |
57 | Kostas Antetokounmpo | 58 | SF | 20.7 | 0.7 | Chris Walker, Cliff Alexander, Ioannis Papapetrou |
58 | Dakota Mathias | 75 | SG | 23.6 | 0.6 | Josh Carter, Rasheed Sulaimon, Elijah Johnson |
59 | Yante Maten | 88 | PF | 22.5 | 0.6 | Matt Howard, Mike Young, JaJuan Johnson |
60 | Brandon McCoy | 64 | C | 20.6 | 0.3 | Stephen Zimmerman, Jordan Williams, JJ Hickson |
61 | Doral Moore | 86 | C | 22.0 | 0.3 | Dexter Pittman, Chinemelu Elonu, Trevor Thompson |
62 | Jaylen Barford | 92 | SG | 23.0 | 0.3 | Charlie Westbrook, Dwayne Bacon, James Blackmon Jr. |
63 | Allonzo Trier | 62 | SG | 23.0 | 0.2 | Jabari Brown, Tyler Harvey, Jodie Meeks |
64 | MiKyle McIntosh | 91 | PF | 24.5 | 0.1 | Elias Harris, Romero Osby, Jamel Artis |
65 | George King | 71 | SF | 25.0 | 0.1 | Jamel Artis, Kenny Kadji, Jaron Blossomgame |
66 | Isaac Haas | 73 | C | 23.3 | 0.0 | Garrett Stutz, Dexter Pittman, Derrick Caracter |
Although CARMELO is reasonably deferential to the scout rankings, it has its share of disagreements. Although both CARMELO and the scouts are generally high on this year’s big men, CARMELO (in contrast to the scouts) likes Texas’s Mohamed Bamba and Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr. slightly more than Ayton, for instance — and much more than Duke’s Marvin Bagley III. CARMELO likes Oklahoma point guard Trae Young, but it likes Kentucky’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slightly more. It’s high on Texas Tech’s Zhaire Smith but down on Kentucky’s Kevin Knox.
As both an empirical and a philosophical matter, we think it’s hard to beat the consensus rankings of NBA scouts and franchises. NBA teams are smart these days: Many of them have projection systems that are at least as sophisticated as CARMELO, plus they have lots of other information that we can’t possibly account for. So if CARMELO disagrees with the consensus of NBA teams, we don’t necessarily want to take CARMELO’s side of the bet. With that said, CARMELO is probably doing a few things right. It puts a lot of emphasis on a player’s age, for instance — that’s one reason it likes Jackson, who is the youngest player on our list. And it tends not to like players who score but don’t have good secondary skills, such as Knox (and to a lesser extent Bagley).
We can get a better sense for where CARMELO differs from the scouts by taking the scouting rankings out of the system and running “pure stats” projections instead. (Note that these projections still account for a player’s height, weight, position and age, in addition to his NCAA statistics.) We would definitely not recommend that NBA teams draft players on the basis of the list — it’s pretty wacky — but it helps to reveal how CARMELO “thinks”:
‘Pure stats’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft
Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr.
Player | Scout Rank | Pos. | Age on 2/1/19 | UPSIDE WAR THRU 2025 | Top Comps | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jarred Vanderbilt | 56 | SF | 19.8 | 19.7 | Harry Giles, Tony Bradley, Cliff Alexander |
2 | De’Anthony Melton | 24 | SG | 20.7 | 17.7 | Jrue Holiday, Eric Bledsoe, Russell Westbrook |
3 | Zhaire Smith | 16 | SF | 19.7 | 15.7 | Justise Winslow, Malik Beasley, Brandan Wright |
4 | Troy Brown | 18 | SG | 19.5 | 13.7 | Justise Winslow, Thaddeus Young, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist |
5 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | 4 | C | 19.4 | 12.9 | Myles Turner, Zach Collins, Karl-Anthony Towns |
6 | Trae Young | 8 | PG | 20.4 | 12.4 | Dennis Smith Jr., Markelle Fultz, Cameron Payne |
7 | Mohamed Bamba | 3 | C | 20.7 | 11.9 | Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Stephen Zimmerman |
8 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 10 | SG | 20.6 | 11.7 | Dejounte Murray, John Wall, Javaris Crittenton |
9 | Wendell Carter Jr. | 7 | C | 19.8 | 11.2 | Derrick Favors, Karl-Anthony Towns, Noah Vonleh |
10 | Josh Okogie | 25 | SG | 20.4 | 10.4 | Alec Burks, Sylven Landesberg, Gary Harris |
11 | Kevin Huerter | 20 | SG | 20.4 | 7.5 | Jeremy Lamb, Ben McLemore, Patrick McCaw |
12 | Robert Williams | 12 | C | 21.3 | 7.1 | Cole Aldrich, John Henson, Ed Davis |
13 | Trevon Duval | 53 | PG | 20.5 | 7.1 | Marquis Teague, Russell Westbrook, Javaris Crittenton |
14 | Marvin Bagley III | 5 | C | 19.9 | 7.0 | Henry Ellenson, Julius Randle, Jarrett Allen |
15 | Deandre Ayton | 1 | C | 20.5 | 6.8 | Jahlil Okafor, Henry Ellenson, Kevin Love |
16 | Gary Trent Jr. | 39 | SG | 20.0 | 6.6 | James Young, Malik Beasley, Ben McLemore |
17 | Jacob Evans | 30 | SF | 21.6 | 6.4 | Wayne Ellington, L.J. Peak, Aaron Harrison |
18 | Lonnie Walker IV | 13 | SG | 20.1 | 6.2 | Zach LaVine, Avery Bradley, Malik Beasley |
19 | Collin Sexton | 11 | PG | 20.1 | 6.2 | De’Aaron Fox, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless |
20 | Jevon Carter | 34 | PG | 23.4 | 5.8 | Shabazz Napier, Fred VanVleet, A.J. Slaughter |
21 | Miles Bridges | 15 | PF | 20.9 | 5.6 | Jordan Hamilton, Harrison Barnes, Ryan Anderson |
22 | Mikal Bridges | 14 | SF | 22.4 | 5.5 | Hollis Thompson, Rodney Williams, Davon Reed |
23 | Omari Spellman | 43 | PF | 21.5 | 5.3 | D.J. Wilson, T.J. Leaf, Cameron Oliver |
24 | Bruce Brown Jr. | 28 | SG | 22.5 | 5.2 | Will Barton, Tim Quarterman, Sonny Weems |
25 | Ray Spalding | 52 | PF | 21.9 | 5.1 | Richard Solomon, Alade Aminu, Markieff Morris |
26 | Tony Carr | 54 | PG | 21.3 | 4.4 | Reggie Jackson, Trey Burke, Sylven Landesberg |
27 | Bonzie Colson | 68 | PF | 23.1 | 4.2 | Matt Howard, Perry Ellis, Damion James |
28 | Gary Clark | 57 | PF | 24.2 | 4.2 | Trevor Booker, Melvin Ejim, Larry Nance Jr. |
29 | Hamidou Diallo | 37 | SG | 20.5 | 4.1 | Malik Beasley, Kobi Simmons, Zach LaVine |
30 | Rawle Alkins | 48 | SG | 21.3 | 4.0 | Ben McLemore, Elliot Williams, Vander Blue |
31 | Kevin Knox | 9 | PF | 19.5 | 3.9 | James Young, Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum |
32 | Donte DiVincenzo | 26 | PG | 22.0 | 3.6 | Tim Quarterman, Tyler Dorsey, Malcolm Lee |
33 | Kevin Hervey | 46 | SF | 22.6 | 3.4 | Landry Fields, Will Daniels, Alec Peters |
34 | Khyri Thomas | 31 | SG | 22.7 | 3.2 | Norman Powell, Isaiah Cousins, Wayne Ellington |
35 | Kenrich Williams | 63 | PF | 24.2 | 3.1 | Melvin Ejim, Dorian Finney-Smith, Wesley Johnson |
36 | Landry Shamet | 49 | PG | 21.9 | 3.1 | Tim Quarterman, Willie Warren, Tyler Dorsey |
37 | Melvin Frazier | 32 | SF | 22.4 | 3.1 | Glen Rice Jr., Vander Blue, L.J. Peak |
38 | Chandler Hutchison | 33 | SF | 22.8 | 3.0 | Landry Fields, Raymar Morgan, Gerald Henderson |
39 | Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk | 59 | SG | 21.6 | 2.8 | Wayne Ellington, Hollis Thompson, Reggie Bullock |
40 | Shake Milton | 40 | SG | 22.3 | 2.7 | Demetrius Jackson, Allen Crabbe, Nick Johnson |
41 | Kostas Antetokounmpo | 58 | SF | 20.7 | 2.7 | Chris Walker, Cliff Alexander, DeAndre Jordan |
42 | Keenan Evans | 72 | PG | 22.4 | 2.7 | Erick Green, Nick Johnson, Isaiah Canaan |
43 | Jerome Robinson | 17 | PG | 21.9 | 2.5 | Klay Thompson, Jordan Clarkson, Shelvin Mack |
44 | Chimezie Metu | 45 | C | 21.9 | 2.5 | Cameron Moore, Damian Jones, Richaun Holmes |
45 | Theo Pinson | 70 | SG | 23.2 | 2.5 | DeAndre Liggins, Brad Wanamaker, Tim Quarterman |
46 | Doral Moore | 86 | C | 22.0 | 2.3 | Robert Upshaw, Dexter Pittman, Ed Davis |
47 | Brandon McCoy | 64 | C | 20.6 | 2.2 | Jahlil Okafor, Marreese Speights, Stephen Zimmerman |
48 | Alize Johnson | 61 | PF | 22.8 | 2.2 | Kyle Kuzma, Pascal Siakam, Marquis Gilstrap |
49 | Yante Maten | 88 | PF | 22.5 | 2.1 | Mike Muscala, Andrew Nicholson, JaJuan Johnson |
50 | Aaron Holiday | 22 | PG | 22.3 | 2.0 | Demetrius Jackson, Ray McCallum, A.J. Price |
51 | Jalen Brunson | 35 | PG | 22.4 | 2.0 | J’Covan Brown, Demetrius Jackson, Anthony Barber |
52 | Vince Edwards | 65 | PF | 22.8 | 2.0 | Chandler Parsons, Quincy Pondexter, Solomon Hill |
53 | DJ Hogg | 60 | PF | 22.4 | 2.0 | Hollis Thompson, Tony Snell, Reggie Bullock |
54 | Grayson Allen | 27 | SG | 23.3 | 2.0 | Ron Baker, Joe Harris, Dionte Christmas |
55 | Justin Jackson | 41 | PF | 22.0 | 1.9 | Jarell Martin, Tony Mitchell, Ben Bentil |
56 | Malik Newman | 47 | SG | 21.9 | 1.8 | Tyler Dorsey, Antonio Blakeney, Luke Kennard |
57 | Devonte’ Graham | 44 | PG | 23.9 | 1.8 | Marcus Paige, Frank Mason III, Ben Hansbrough |
58 | Keita Bates-Diop | 29 | PF | 23.0 | 1.8 | Justin Harper, Robert Carter Jr., Wayne Chism |
59 | Moritz Wagner | 36 | C | 21.8 | 1.7 | Marcus Morris, Justin Harper, Brandon Ashley |
60 | Dakota Mathias | 75 | SG | 23.6 | 1.6 | Rasheed Sulaimon, Josh Carter, Elijah Johnson |
61 | Jaylen Barford | 92 | SG | 23.0 | 1.5 | Jordan Crawford, Charlie Westbrook, Dwayne Bacon |
62 | Devon Hall | 51 | SG | 23.6 | 1.3 | Courtney Fells, Gilbert Brown, Travis Releford |
63 | Allonzo Trier | 62 | SG | 23.0 | 0.7 | Jabari Brown, Anthony Goods, Jodie Meeks |
64 | MiKyle McIntosh | 91 | PF | 24.5 | 0.4 | Elias Harris, Sam Young, Romero Osby |
65 | Isaac Haas | 73 | C | 23.3 | 0.2 | Garrett Stutz, Dexter Pittman, Derrick Caracter |
66 | George King | 71 | SF | 25.0 | 0.2 | Jamel Artis, Jaron Blossomgame, Kenny Kadji |
This list goes to show that ranking players purely on the basis of their college stats is probably an exercise in futility — or at least would lead to some very unconventional picks. On a pure stats basis, the top pick is … Kentucky’s Jarred Vanderbilt (?!?), who ranks just 56th in ESPN’s scouting rankings. Vanderbilt is a weird case, as injury limited him to just 238 minutes played for Kentucky. He was extremely productive in those minutes, averaging 19.7 points and 26.5 rebounds per 100 possessions, but his lack of shooting ability undoubtedly limits his upside, at least relative to where CARMELO pegs it.
Smith is more typical of the types of players CARMELO likes. At Texas Tech, he wasn’t a high-usage player, but usage rate tends not to translate very well from college ball into the NBA. On the other hand, scoring efficiency does, and Smith was highly efficient, shooting 55.6 percent from the field and showing 3-point range. His other statistics, such as blocks, steals and assist-to-turnover ratio, were also mostly pretty good, and he’s one of the younger players in the draft.
In other cases, CARMELO isn’t quite so contrarian. Jackson, Young, Bamba, Gilgeous-Alexander and Wendell Carter Jr. all rank in the top 10 according to both the pure stats and the scouting rankings. Overall, there’s a reasonably strong correlation (.53) between a player’s scouting ranking and his pure stats CARMELO upside score.