Entering the 1983 playoffs, 76ers center Moses Malone boasted that his team would go “fo’, fo’, fo’” — 4-0 in three straight playoff series to win the NBA title. Philadelphia went 12-1, dropping Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals to the Bucks before sweeping the Lakers. Malone’s dream of an undefeated postseason was never realized, by his Sixers or any other team.
The Golden State Warriors just had the best regular season in NBA history, including a 24-0 streak out of the gate. Can they do Malone one better and go “fo’, fo’, fo’, fo’ ”? Based on 50,000 simulations of the NBA playoffs using our NBA CARM-Elo ratings, probably not:
| TEAM | OCCURRENCES IN 50,000 SIMS | CHANCES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 199 | 0.40% | |
| Spurs | 136 | 0.27 | |
| Cavaliers | 11 | 0.02 | |
| Thunder | 10 | 0.02 | |
| Raptors | 6 | 0.01 | |
| Clippers | 1 | <0.01 | |
| Hawks | 1 | <0.01 | |
| Hornets | 1 | <0.01 |
The NBA playoffs are stacked this year. The Warriors have been historically great, but so have the Spurs. And the Thunder, Cavaliers, Clippers and Raptors are fielding strong teams. Our model currently gives Golden State just a 42 percent chance of repeating its title, so to escape four rounds unscathed would be a near-impossible achievement. We put it at 0.40 percent.
But 16-0 is a lot to ask. The greatest playoff run in NBA history belongs to the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers, who were undefeated entering the Finals. They then ran right into Allen Iverson, who did this:
… and also this:
The Lakers would go on to win the last four games, finishing with a 15-1 postseason record. Now that the first round playoff series are seven games instead of five, the Warriors could surpass that winning percentage by going 16-1. Alas, they probably won’t:
| TEAM | OCCURRENCES IN 50,000 SIMS | CHANCES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 1,099 | 2.20% | |
| Spurs | 669 | 1.34 | |
| Cavaliers | 61 | 0.12 | |
| Thunder | 43 | 0.09 | |
| Raptors | 32 | 0.06 | |
| Hornets | 7 | 0.01 | |
| Clippers | 5 | 0.01 | |
| Hawks | 5 | 0.01 | |
| Celtics | 1 | <0.01 | |
| Trail Blazers | 1 | <0.01 |
We give Golden State roughly a 1-in-45 chance of following up the greatest regular season ever with the greatest postseason ever. The Spurs have around a 1-in-75 chance, while Tyronn Lue — head coach of the Cavs and victim of Iverson’s vicious step-over — has a very outside shot at surpassing his own Lakers squad.
Check out our latest NBA predictions.
