Well, that’s that for Graham-Cassidy (and this live blog). Graham-Cassidy failed for the same reasons the various other Obamacare repeals have: It was too conservative for senators like Maine’s Susan Collins, insufficiently conservative for people like Kentucky’s Rand Paul and written in too much of a slapdash, partisan way for people like Arizona’s John McCain.
“Where we go from here is tax reform. We plan to move forward on our next priority,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, after a lunch with GOP senators in which it became even more clear that Republicans didn’t have the votes to pass Graham-Cassidy.
Some Republicans are still talking about using the 2018 reconciliation bill to do Obamacare repeal, since the 2017 process effectively requires a repeal by Saturday. But I wonder, after so many failed attempts, if this is bluster. Maybe, as McConnell says, Republicans will just move on to tax reform or other issues.
There are, however, developments that could make the passage of a repeal bill more likely by shifting the makeup of the Senate.
I hate to be morbid about this, but if McCain, who is suffering from brain cancer, were to resign from the Senate or pass away, Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey would appoint his replacement, who would serve until the 2018 elections. I assume Ducey, who supported Graham-Cassidy, would appoint a Republican who backed Obamacare repeal.
And if New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, who is standing trial on corruption charges, were to be convicted and then expelled from his office by a two-thirds majority of the Senate, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie would pick Menendez’s replacement. Christie’s term runs until Jan. 18, and he too would be likely to appoint a Republican who would back Obamacare repeal.
So, Republicans would essentially gain two more “yes” votes for Obamacare repeal. Yes, those are unlikely scenarios, but not out of the realm of possibility.
Otherwise, as I wrote last week, the Republicans have four paths:
- Congress could pass a bipartisan bill to improve Obamacare, which would be an acknowledgement that the law is going to stay (Anna wrote about this option below).
- The Trump administration could just opt to try to implement the law, but in a more conservative way.
- Republicans could keep trying to push repeal, even if the last eight months suggest that they’ll keep running into the same problems.
- Trump’s team could try to unwind or weaken as much of Obamacare as possible through executive branch actions.
I’m honestly not sure which direction the GOP will take. For one thing, I would not have guessed when 2017 started that Republicans would spend eight months running into the same problems with multiple repeal efforts.
In any case, you’ll notice that “not do anything else on health care” is not among the four paths. Graham-Cassidy may be over, but the battle over Obamacare isn’t.