Now batting for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bryce Harper.
A draft is an exercise is how to look ahead. But given the current state of just about everything in baseball, you’d be forgiven for a desire to look elsewhere. (Which way is ahead here, exactly?) So let’s look back instead. The 2010 MLB draft was one of baseball’s best, hyped at the time with the twin talents of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and since rounded out with a slew of top talents and All-Stars. On its 10th anniversary, here’s a redraft of the first half of the first round:
1. Washington Nationals
Actual Pick: Bryce Harper
Redraft Pick: Chris Sale (Actual: #13, Chicago White Sox)
Sure, this was just about universally known as the Harper-Machado Draft. But there’s a solid case to be made that the first selection should have been.... neither. Sale was originally given a chance to go at the top of the first round—Baseball America had him at No. 5, and Baseball Prospectus ranked him No. 4—but he fell a few notches on draft day, largely due to concerns about how his frame would hold up. (That perception wasn’t helped when the lanky 21-year-old lost seven pounds from food poisoning in May, which made his build look even more extreme, right before the draft.) But a decade later, Sale’s settled all doubts about what he can do with his Waluigi-esque frame and dramatic delivery.
By every measure of accounting, he owns this draft class with a sizable lead in WAR. (It’s an 8.7 lead over Machado by Baseball-Reference, 9.4 lead over Harper by FanGraphs, and 12.4 lead over Jacob deGrom by Baseball Prospectus, so while there’s no consensus on the runner-up, every measure agrees on Sale.) In eight full seasons, he’s had six top-five finishes for Cy Young, and he’s set the all-time record for strikeout-to-walk ratio. In our revision, that earns him No. 1.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual Pick: Jameson Taillon
Redraft Pick: Bryce Harper (Actual: #1, Washington Nationals)
The next three can be legitimately argued in any order. An opportunity to refresh the Harper-versus-Machado debate that surrounded their mutual free agency, with a chance to wonder what it would have been like if that had included Yelich, too, fresh off an MVP!
The case for Harper is built on much of what propelled him to No. 1 back in 2010: Who can resist the allure of a potentially generational talent? He’s lived up to that hype in fits and starts, particularly with his rookie campaign in 2012 and his MVP season in 2015. And while he hasn’t consistently been able to play at that level, you’re still getting a player who, at his worst, is "only” solidly above average, and, at his best, has been otherworldly. Plus all that follows in publicity for a player who’s done his best to take on being the face of baseball.
3. Baltimore Orioles
Actual Pick: Manny Machado
Redraft Pick: Christian Yelich (Actual: #23, Miami Marlins)
Yelich’s career has played out more linearly than either Machado or Harper’s, which makes it easy to craft a coherent case for him. In Yelich, you have a player who debuts strong and gets steadily better, going from simply good to clearly great, before exploding with two MVP-caliber seasons in 2018 and 2019. Yes, it took until the end of his time under team control to tap into that potential, but if we’re operating under the belief that any team who’d take him in a hypothetical redraft would be able to ink a smart extension for him as did the Marlins... it’s worth it to take him at No. 3.
4. Kansas City Royals
Actual Pick: Christian Colon
Redraft Pick: Manny Machado (Actual: #3, Baltimore Orioles)
For what it’s worth, this set of players is ranked differently by each of the three formulations of WAR. It’s Machado-Yelich-Harper for Baseball-Reference, Harper-Yelich-Machado for FanGraphs, and Machado-Harper-Yelich for Baseball Prospectus, all with pretty slim gaps. Each is third by one measure. But Machado is the only one to be in first by two. And we have him third here? To be clear, he does have a solid case to be first or second in this set—let’s say it one more time: the three of these could fairly be ranked any which way!—but we’re giving the slightest of slight edges to Harper and Yelich here due to the fact that their peaks have been higher, even if there’s been more consistency from Machado.
5. Cleveland Indians
Actual Pick: Drew Pomeranz
Redraft Pick: Jacob deGrom (Actual: #272, New York Mets)
deGrom didn’t appear too much in the pre-draft conversation. A two-way player at Stetson, he’d started his junior season as a shortstop and reliever, but he pitched well enough to earn himself a switch to starter and a berth in the rotation. He jumped on the radar for MLB teams with a start against, funnily enough, Sale—with scouts in town to check out the presumptive first-rounder from Florida Gulf Coast, they took notice of deGrom, too. While he ended up going in the ninth round to the Mets, his record since has established him as easily one of the best players in this draft, with Rookie of the Year honors and two Cy Youngs.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Actual Pick: Barret Loux
Redraft Pick: Yasmani Grandal (Actual: #12, Cincinnati Reds)
Our selections for No. 6 and No. 7 are rooted in the same idea—stellar defense at a premium position. Grandal’s framing puts him among the game’s best defensive catchers, while Andrelton Simmons’ glove at shortstop is a wonder unto itself. But Grandal can take a small boost over Simmons here, thanks to his steadier bat.
This pick also marks a milestone—the first one where the actual draftee never made it to the majors. Barret Loux was a surprising choice at the time for the Diamondbacks; he’d had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow the previous year and had yet to fully bounce back. Baseball America slotted him at No. 35, and no one had expected him to move at the top of the first round. But the Diamondbacks’ bet didn’t pay off. He failed his physical, with both a torn labrum and lingering elbow damage from his prior surgery, and he wasn't offered a contract. (MLB declared him a free agent and he ended up spending a few years in the minors and indy ball.)
7. New York Mets
Actual Pick: Matt Harvey
Redraft Pick: Andrelton Simmons (Actual: #70, Atlanta Braves)
How incredible is Simmons’ defense? Feel free to watch a highlight reel, but if you’d like some numbers to back it up... He ranks #14 all-time in Baseball-Reference's defensive WAR. And he’s climbed that list fast, as the only name with fewer than 1,050 games played in the top 100. He’s included in the best handful of shortstops in the modern era, behind only names like Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, Jr., and Luis Aparicio. Plus, again, just watch those highlights.
8. Houston Astros
Actual Pick: Delino DeShields, Jr.
Redraft Pick: Noah Syndergaard (Actual: #38, Toronto Blue Jays)
Syndergaard’s stock soared just before the draft, when the high school senior had an incredible run in the Texas 4-A Playoffs. That convinced Toronto to take him in the supplemental round, but on a redraft, he’s a no-doubt first-rounder. While he’s in a difficult stretch now—in recovery from Tommy John after a frustrating 2019—it’s easy to imagine that much better times are ahead, and with a career 3.31 ERA and 9.7 K/9, that can’t be sneezed at.
9. San Diego Padres
Actual Pick: Karsten Whitson
Redraft Pick: J.T. Realmuto (Actual: #104, Miami Marlins)
Realmuto wasn’t a full-time catcher before he was drafted; in high school, he split his time between shortstop and backstop. (And quarterback—he led his football team to a state championship as a senior.) But he settled on the position permanently in the minor leagues, and it’s worked out wonderfully, as he’s now one of the best defensive catchers around. The Grandal-versus-Realmuto debate over who’s the best is a fair one, and there’s a case to be made that the title of better all-around catcher should be Realmuto’s. But for the scenario of a redraft—judged more on what a player can do while under initial team control rather than for his career as a whole—Grandal moves off the board first, as he established himself more quickly.
10. Oakland Athletics
Actual Pick: Michael Choice
Redraft Pick: Adam Eaton (Actual: #561, Arizona Diamondbacks)
This is a difficult one to sort out; this class was so loaded that there are plenty of fair choices to round out the Top 10. But we’ll hand it to Eaton, who wasn’t high on anyone’s draft board back in 2010. (For those curious about the location of #561, it’s in the 19th round.) The knocks against him were just what you’re probably guessing—too small!—but he’s more than made it work for him, getting the nickname “Mighty Mouse” as he’s built a consistent record as the consummate leadoff hitter.
11. Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Pick: Deck McGuire
Redraft Pick: Matt Harvey (Actual: #7, New York Mets)
The No. 11 and 12 picks are a fun what-would-you-rather—a pitcher with a spectacularly high peak, and equally dramatic fall, or more consistent work sustained over time? There’s a case to be made for either. But Harvey takes it here over Paxton. His first few seasons, particularly 2013, really were that good, regardless of what came after.
12. Cincinnati Reds
Actual Pick: Yasmani Grandal
Redraft Pick: James Paxton (Actual: #134, Seattle Mariners)
Paxton originally was a first-rounder—in 2009, after his junior season at Kentucky. But he decided to return to school, where he was soon penalized and ruled ineligible by the NCAA for contact with Scott Boras, and he spent the next season in indy ball instead before slipping to the fourth round for 2010. In our redraft, there’s no doubt that he deserves that first-round status back. Sure, there have been (and still are) injury concerns around Paxton. But he’s been so solid while healthy that he can’t be passed up.
13. Chicago White Sox
Actual Pick: Chris Sale
Redraft Pick: Whit Merrifield (Actual: #268, Kansas City Royals)
Merrifield is one of the trickiest names to slot in on this list. On one hand, he’s been fantastic in each of his three big league campaigns, baseball’s leader in both hits and stolen bases in 2018. On the other... teams typically don’t want a first-round pick to take seven seasons to make his first full season in the majors. It’s hard to compare his three-and-a-half years of service to most of the other names on this list (on a rate basis, he’s been better than several of those above them!), but the amount of time it took to develop that knocks him out of the top 10.
14. Milwaukee Brewers
Actual Pick: Dylan Covey
Redraft Pick: Kevin Kiermaier (Actual: #941, Tampa Bay Rays)
Kiermaier was a 31st round flier who’s become the cornerstone of a franchise. Thanks to his centerfield defense, which hasn't worn down much with time, he’s a sure first-rounder.
15. Texas Rangers
Actual Pick: Jake Skole
Redraft Pick: Joc Pederson (Actual: #352, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Ultimately, Pederson ended up in the perfect spot for him: The Dodgers’ plug-and-play defense makes the most of his versatility and protects him from having to face left-handed pitching too often. But his performance over the last few years has confirmed that he has the talent to work anywhere. (It just helps if it’s in a platoon.)