SI Fantasy insider Shawn Childs provides a RB1 & RB2 scoring breakdown and projects what point targets they need to hit to gain an edge.
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Over the last few years, NFL teams have started to use more and more running back committees in their offenses. This process devalues the RB position. The most valuable running backs in the high-stakes market will be the players who can score in all three areas – rushing, receiving, and touchdowns. The players with a three-down opportunity are minimal. Here’s a look at the top 12 RB options in each of the last four years:
RB1: Last year, the top 12 running backs averaged 1,638 combined yards, 57.50 catches, and 12 TDs, which works out to be about 291.41 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 18.22 Fantasy points per week. In 2019, the top 12 RBs scored the most combined fantasy points (301.95 fantasy points per player) in NFL history.
The top four running backs averaged only 358.68 fantasy points with Christian McCaffrey dominating the field (471.2 fantasy points). He had an almost 155-point advantage over the second ranked running back in 2020.
The top four RBs averaged about 1,819 combined yards, 77.75 catches, and 15.75 TDs.
The second thru fifth running backs finished in a tight range in fantasy points (316.90 to 294.40).
McCaffrey almost doubled the output of the running backs that ranked 10th, 11th, and 12th in 2020.
Typically in each fantasy football season, there will be about 20 to 24 running backs that will score more than 180 points in full-point PPR leagues. Last year 23 running backs scored over 180 Fantasy points compared to 21 in 2018.
FFWC Point Totals RB Observations
As I mentioned earlier, we all play in different types of fantasy leagues. I’ve been playing in the high-stakes market in fantasy football since 2004.
If you want to win an overall competition, you must own two elite running backs. You don’t necessarily have to draft them in the first two rounds, but you will need to find a difference-maker somewhere later in the draft.
A lot of the top players in the country will tend to cheat the RB2 position. This philosophy will work the best when a fantasy owner has an early draft position in most seasons.
The RB1 position has been stable over the past two seasons, which was helped by elite seasons by multiple running backs.
2017 brought value back to the RB position as most winning teams added Todd Gurley in the second round plus Alvin Kamara in round nine in the live drafts in Vegas. Kareem Hunt went from a value pick all summer to a top-five pick for the Fantasy owners that drafted after the opening game on Thursday night vs. the Patriots.
This year the running back position looks exceptional at the front end while offering intriguing options in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds in fantasy drafts.
In 2019, the first round was littered with busts (Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell).
The value at running back last year came from Derrick Henry (4th round), Austin Ekeler (5th to 6th round in the high-stakes market). Ekeler gained his value bump in opportunity from the Melvin Gordon holdout.
The best running backs in the league should have a higher opportunity to score fantasy points than the top wide receivers in the game as long as they are active in the running and passing game with scoring ability.
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