With many of the top names back on Tour this week, SI Fantasy analyst Ben Heisler goes through his top fantasy plays, as well as a major fade for the FedEx St. Jude Invitational in Memphis.
Previous PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary
- 3M Open: Michael Thompson ($7,000)
- The Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm ($9,300)
- Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa ($9,200)
- Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700)
- Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson ($9,400)
- RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson ($9,000)
- Charles Schwab Challenge: Daniel Berger ($7,700)
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FedEx St. Jude Invitational Cash Plays
Rory McIlroy ($11,200 DK, $11,900 FD)
The longtime number one ranked player in the world gave up his top spot two weeks ago to Jon Rahm at the Memorial. After skipping the 3M Open last week, McIlroy should be rested up for an important stretch of the PGA calendar as he looks to take back his top spot.
McIlroy has made every cut so far this year, and is second in SG (strokes-gained): off-the-tee and seventh in SG: total over his last 24 rounds. His issues have come with mediocre putting and near the green which can turn around in a heartbeat.
Salute to PGA DFS and betting icon Rick Gehman for coming across this terrific stat:
Daniel Berger ($9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)
A few weeks ago, I wrote that Berger was my absolute favorite cash play at the Memorial over the hottest golfer in the world in Bryson DeChambeau.
While DeChambeau ended up missing the cut with a 10 on Friday, Berger didn’t fare much better either. But this is still someone who up until last week hadn’t missed a cut since October at the Houston Open, and had finished no worse than 38th since that missed cut. He’s top-five in SG: total and SG: putting over his last 24 rounds, and has no real weaknesses in his game at the moment. For nearly $2,000 less than Rahm and McIlroy, I think I start my cash lineups once again with Berger.
Viktor Hovland ($9,400 DK, $10,600 FD)
Collectively, no golfer may have better numbers than Hovland in the following categories over his last 24 rounds: SG: total (8), SG: off-the-tee (10), SG: approach (1), and SG: around the green (29). So where has Hovland gone wrong? Per usual, it’s the putter, ranking 61st in strokes gained: putting. If Hovland can just avoid the bogeys (25th in bogey avoidance), he might lap the field.
Despite his issues on the greens, Hovland until two weeks ago (48 at the Memorial) had not finished lower than 23rd since the restart. His only bad outing was due to the rough conditions at Muirfield when he shot a 77 and a 79 on the final weekend to go to +8. Mind you, a +8 score still finished 48 overall!
Just like Colin Morikawa, all it takes is a few putts to click for Hovland to get going. He will win an event this season, and I think TPC Southwind is very much in play.
Kevin Streelman ($6,900 DK, $8,500 FD)
Streelman feels like a misprice considering how well he’s played in two of his last three events. He finished second at the Travelers, seventh at the Workday, and still made the cut despite having issues on the final weekend (like Hovland and so many others) at the Memorial.
Streelman’s metrics over his last 24 rounds line up exceptionally well considering his price point. He’s top 20 in SG: total, SG: off-the-tee, and SG; approach, while also finishing just outside of the top 30 in SG: putting. The 9/21 cuts made will scare plenty of golfers away, but based on recent success and his solid play off-the-tee, I think he stands out as a great cash game savings play.
Chez Reavie ($6,700 DK, $8,200 FD)
I wrote up Reavie two weeks ago for the Memorial and he delivered with a T22 finish at a terrific price tag in the $6,000’s. I’m still surprised to see him come in at $6,700 considering he’s made four straight cuts including a top 20 finish at the Workday Charity Open, and then the T22 at Muirfield Village a week later.
He’ll need to be better off the tee to have a fighting chance at TPC Southwind (currently ranks 59th in SG: off-the-tee in his last 24 events), but his overall numbers have been excellent and his price point allows for more top-tier plays in the $9000's and even $10,000's
FedEx St. Jude Invitational Tournament Plays
Xander Schauffele ($9,800 DK, $11,200 FD)
Xander Schauffele is the next contestant to participate in the BGTE model (Bet Golfer Too Early) model. Check out some of the plays that have really come back to bite me on Day 1.
Scheffler has rounded into much better form since that disastrous opening round, Dahmen after his awful outing at the Workday made the cut at the Memorial (but then turned in a +18 over the weekend). Schauffele, however, somehow managed to make the cut at the Memorial and turn in a 13th place finish!
I think about how Jon Rahm the week before he won finished with a 64 and was really confident heading in. The same can be said for Schauffele who has shown that even with a rough round, he can still contend anywhere. Schauffele also ranks top 10 in opportunities gained, bogey avoidance and birdies, as well as 11th in BoB (birdie or better percentage) gained.
Patrick Reed ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD)
Reed continues to be a “feast or famine” play, but I was impressed with how well he played at the Memorial with a T10 finish in very difficult conditions after a T39 the week before. He tends to show up for bigger tournaments and even though the FedEx St. Jude Invitational is not a major, there’s major type stars participating.
Over his last 50 rounds, Reed ranks sixth in SG: total, second in SG: short game and second in SG: putting. He’s also second in DraftKings points gained, so even when his final numbers aren’t great, he’s still loading up on fantasy points.
Sergio Garcia ($8,000 DK, $9200 FD)
Sergio has a couple of things going for him ahead of this week’s tournament. He’s finished T32 in his last two tournaments to go along with a T5 at the RBC Heritage. And his SG: off-the-tee and SG:around-the-green are top-five and top-six respectively on Tour over his last 24 rounds.
Both of those metrics should play a major factor over at TPC Southwind. Additionally, Garcia’s other tee-to-green numbers also play out well. He’s ninth in SG: tee-to-green, 13th in driving distance, 11th in “good drives” (either hits the fairway or hits the green in regulation) and ninth in “sand saves.”
Matthew Wolff ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD)
Wolff is also trending in the right direction after a T22 at the Memorial, only to follow it up with a T12 at the 3M Open; an event he won a season ago. Wolff would have finished in the top 10 last week if not for a costly bogey on 18.
Mixed in with two missed cuts, Wolff has a 2nd place, 12th place and 22nd place finish in his last five events all after the PGA restart. Like many of the other names, his tee-to-green game has been in very solid form. He’ll need to clean up his play around the green (68th in SG: around-the-green) but he’s shown in contending tournaments that he absolutely can.
Mackenzie Hughes ($6,400 DK, $7,700 FD)
Hughes may become a more popular name as the week goes by, but he’s insanely cheap with a real good opportunity to legitimately contend this week. He doesn’t fall into the category of most of the players I’m selecting this week because he’s not much of a bomber off the tee (56th in SG: off-the-tee). He is an elite level putter, however, ranking first in SG: putting and 4th in SG: around-the-green.
Hughes’ price tag just doesn’t add up to his recent success and if the putter stays hot, he’ll remain in contention no matter how much he lays up when teeing up.
FedEx St. Jude Invitational Fade
Jon Rahm ($11,400 DK, $12,000 FD)
I obviously liked Rahm enough to play him two weeks ago at the Memorial and he hasn’t played since then? Why decide to fade the guy that got me a win at 20/1 and has been playing some of his best golf of the season?
It’s purely a price point play. At that time, Rahm was just $9,300 on DraftKings and was steadily improving over his last few tournaments. Also, if it’s a toss-up between Rahm and Rory, I’d lean Rory for $200 less who will assuredly make the cut, has better SG: off-the-tee and approach numbers than Rahm, and will constantly be on the attack for fantasy points as he rankings first in DK PTS gained in Fantasy National’s Mixed Condition model.