A massive field for this year's FedEx St. Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind has pushed some very good golfers down to great value bets. SI Gambling insider Ben Heisler goes through his favorite value PGA Tour bets and longshot plays for this week in Memphis.
Odds used are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
FedEx St. Jude Open Value Bets
Abraham Ancer (50/1)
Bettors will feel like they got burned on Ancer with his T58 at the Memorial in his previous event. That's not fair at all. The conditions for anyone were miserable and Ancer struggled like most of the field that final weekend. Regardless, he hasn't missed a cut since OCTOBER of 2019, and has a second place finish to go along with a pair of top 15's in his last three events before the Memorial.
We were all talking up Ancer as a legitimate contender just two weeks ago. I don't think a T58 at Muirfield changes that, especially at great odds of 50/1.
Sergio Garcia (70/1)
Sergio has a couple of things going for him ahead of this week’s tournament. He’s finished T32 in his last two tournaments to go along with a T5 at the RBC Heritage. And his SG: off-the-tee and SG:around-the-green are top-five and top-six respectively on Tour over his last 24 rounds.
Both of those metrics should play a major factor over at TPC Southwind. Additionally, Garcia’s other tee-to-green numbers also play out well. He’s ninth in SG: tee-to-green, 13th in driving distance, 11th in “good drives” (either hits the fairway or hits the green in regulation) and ninth in “sand saves.”
Paul Casey (75/1)
Casey was one of my favorite cash game plays for DFS last week and a decent value at a weak field in the 3M Open. It didn't go according to plan as he missed the cut for the second consecutive week.
This week with nobody on him and all the pressure gone, I think he's in a prime spot to respond. He wasn't bad at the 3M Open, shooting +2 for the first two days. He was excellent in ball striking and off the tee but his putter failed him yet again. I like his chances as well as his value.
Matthew Wolff (80/1)
Wolff is also trending in the right direction after a T22 at the Memorial, only to follow it up with a T12 at the 3M Open; an event he won a season ago. Wolff would have finished in the top 10 last week if not for a costly bogey on 18.
Mixed in with two missed cuts, Wolff has a 2nd place, 12th place and 22nd place finish in his last five events all after the PGA restart. Like many of the other names, his tee-to-green game has been in very solid form. He’ll need to clean up his play around the green (68th in SG: around-the-green) but he’s shown in contending tournaments that he absolutely can.
Other Value Bets to Consider
Sung-Jae Im (75/1)
Joaquin Niemann (85/1)
FedEx St. Jude Invitational Longshot Bets
Kevin Streelman (100/1)
Streelman feels like a misprice considering how well he’s played in two of his last three events. He finished second at the Travelers, seventh at the Workday, and still made the cut despite having issues on the final weekend (like Hovland and so many others) at the Memorial.
Streelman’s metrics over his last 24 rounds line up exceptionally well considering his price point. He’s top 20 in SG: total, SG: off-the-tee, and SG; approach, while also finishing just outside of the top 30 in SG: putting.
The 9/21 cuts made will scare plenty of golfers away, but based on recent success and his solid play off-the-tee, I think he stands out as not only a great cash game savings play, but as an outstanding longshot bet.
Mackenzie Hughes (150/1)
Hughes may become a more popular name as the week goes by, but he’s insanely cheap with a real good opportunity to legitimately contend this week. He doesn’t fall into the category of most of the players I’m selecting this week because he’s not much of a bomber off the tee (56th in SG: off-the-tee). He is an elite level putter, however, ranking first in SG: putting and 4th in SG: around-the-green.
Hughes’ price tag just doesn’t add up to his recent success and if the putter stays hot, he’ll remain in contention no matter how much he lays up when teeing up.
Other Value Bets to Consider
Kevin Na (100/1)
Erik Van Rooyen (150/1)
Brandt Snedeker (150/1)
Cameron Champ (170/1)
Jason Kokrak (250/1)