SI Fantasy's Team Preview series from high-stakes legend Shawn Childs aims to break down the Kansas City Chiefs to evaluate the offense, defense, coaches and everyone in between with a fantasy-slanted analysis.
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Coaching Staff
For the first time in his 21 seasons as a head coach, Andy Reid picked up that elusive third win in the playoffs leading to his first Super Bowl title. Reid has been exceptional over his seven seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs (77-35 with six trips to the postseason). He had ten or more wins in each of his last five seasons, and Reid has double-digit victories in two-thirds of his career seasons with Kansas City and Philadelphia.
His next step is improving on his playoff record (15-14 in his career and 5-5 with the Chiefs). Reid improved to 7th in NFL in career wins (207) and 28th in winning percentage (.618).
With his resume and a young elite quarterback, Reid looks poised to be in the Super Bowl conversation for the next few seasons.
After working as the running backs coach in the Chiefs' system over the previous five seasons, Eric Bieniemy now has three years of experience as the offensive coordinator and a Super Bowl win for Kansas City. Bieniemy is a former NFL player with 11 years of coaching experience in the pros. In 2011 and 2012, he held the offensive coordinator job for Colorado Buffaloes. Kansas City’s success on offense should lead to Bieniemy pushing his way to a head coaching opportunity soon.
After leading the NFL in points scored (565) and offensive yards in 2019, the Chiefs scored 114 fewer points last year (451 – 5th) while slipping to sixth in offensive yards.
In his first season as the defensive coordinator for the Chiefs, Steve Spagnuolo helped Kansas City win their second Super Bowl in franchise history. He’s been in the NFL since 1999, with seven years of experience running a defense and three failed seasons as a head coach (11-41).
The Chiefs improved to seventh in points allowed (308), which was 113 fewer points than 2018 (421). Kansas City pushed their way to 17th in yards allowed, which was well above their failure in 2017 (28th) and 2018 (31st).
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes (RANK - ADP)
After an elite first full season in the NFL (30.15 FPPG in 4-point passing TD league), Mahomes lost about five fantasy points of value in 2019 (25.11) based on his scoring average over his 13 full contests. He passed for over 300 yards in his first five games (1,831 yards with 11 TDs and no Ints).
After playing at a high level (446/3) after missing two games with a right knee cap issue, Mahomes gained under 200 yards in three of his final six starts in the regular season while failing to throw over two TDs in any game over this stretch. He finished the year with 50 completions over 20 yards, which was well below his success in 2018 (75).
In the playoffs, Mahomes regained his elite form (1,036 combined yards with 12 TDs and two Ints).
The Chiefs have regression in the production at the RB position, plus Tyreek Hill missed four games. The addition of RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire should help Kansas City balance their offense in 2020.
Mahomes has a Super Bowl belt on his resume with a bright future ahead. Look for a push over 5,000 yards passing with a floor of 40 combined TDs. Just remember his 2018 season (482.45) had comparable success to Lamar Jackson last year (454.95 – 15 games).
My top quarterback on the board while being projected for 5,187 combined with 37 TDs and 11 Ints.
Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RANK - ADP)
After an unimpressive sophomore campaign at LSU (146/658/7 with 11 catches for 96 yards), Edwards-Helaire broke out in 2019. He gained 1,867 yards with 17 TDs and 55 catches on 270 touches. His growth came after Joe Burrow emerged as an elite passer.
Over the first five games in 2019, Edwards-Helaire rushed for 360 yards, and five TDs on 65 carries with some success in the passing game (10/59). His stats blossomed over a four-game stretch (814 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 27 catches on 92 touches) starting in late October. Edwards-Helaire had his highlight game against Arkansas (253 combined yards with three TDs and seven catches).
In his rookie season, Edwards-Helaire should emerge as the top Chiefs’ running back. Out of the gate, he’ll rotate on early downs with his best value coming in the passing game. I set the bar for him at 1,191 combined yards with 10 TDs and 49 catches.
Fantasy owners priced him as the 14th running back after the 2020 NFL Draft with an ADP of 20. Upside swing, especially if he’s discounted.
Damien Williams & Darwin Thompson
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Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (RANK - ADP)
After an excellent 2018 season (1,630 combined yards with 14 TDs and 87 catches), Hill stumbled out of the gate in Week 1 (2/16) due to a shoulder injury. He sat out the next four games while also leaving Week 11 early with a minor hamstring issue.
In his 13 full games, including the playoffs, he gained 1,086 combined yards with nine TDs and 73 catches or 18.12 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. In 2019, Hill scored 20.91 fantasy points per game. His best play came in Week (6/140/1) and Week 10 (11/157/1).
This season Kansas City should regain its bounce in the passing game. Hill also adds value as a runner (22/151/1 in 2018). A lockdown top-five wide receiver. I have Hill projected for 1,476 combined yards with 11 TDs and 88 catches in early June.
Mecole Hardman & Sammy Watkins
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Tight Ends
Kelce is one of a few tight ends that has a WR1 opportunity. Last year he posted his 4th straight season with over 1,000 receiving while averaging 92 catches over this stretch. Kelce led TEs and the Chiefs in targets (136).
With Patrick Mahomes battling ankle and knee issues, Tyreek Hill missing some time, and a drop-down in RB play, KC scored 20 fewer passing TDs than 2018 (50).
In 2019, Kelce earned his fantasy edge by being more consistent (ten games with six catches or more and 70 yards receiving or more) than explosive (only five TDs and two games with over 100 yards receiving).
A fantasy owner can expect him to be drafted late in the second round (ADP – 21) in PPR leagues in 2020, which almost makes him a target to own. Look for the Chiefs’ offense to regain its stride this year with Kelce poised to repeat his recent floor with rebound TDs. I set his first projections at 100 catches for 1,211 yards and eight TDs.
Defense
The Chiefs ranked 26th in 2019 defending the run (2,051 yards). They allowed 4.9 yards per carry with 14 rushing TDs and nine rushes over 20 yards.
Kansas City improved to eighth in passing yards allowed (3,543) with 21 TDs and 16 Ints. Their defense had growth in 45 sacks while allowing 46 catches of 20 yards or more.
In the premium outlook, on defense you'll find write-ups for DE Alex Okafor, DE Frank Clark, DT Chris Jones, DT Derrick Nnadi, LB Damien Wilson, LB Anthony Hitchens, LB Willie Gay, CB Bashaud Breeland, CB Charvarius Ward, S Tyrann Mathieu & S Juan Thornhill.
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Team Defense Outlook
The strength in the defensive line sets the tone of the second and third levels on the Chiefs’ defense. If Kansas City doesn’t shorten the passing window, they do have risk in coverage in the deep passing game. I don’t see an impact player as of now at the linebacker position, which invites more struggles vs. the run.
Game score will force offenses to be one dimensional many times in 2020, which helps create sacks and turnovers. Viable starting fantasy defense when facing second-tier quarterbacks and weaker offensive line.
Free Agency, Draft, Offensive Line, Offensive Schedule & Defensive Schedule
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