SI Fantasy and Gambling insider Ben Heisler runs through his favorite daily fantasy plays and bets for the two-game Major League Baseball slate.
Baseball fans weren’t sure if we’d ever make it, but the 2020 season has finally arrived!
For most daily fantasy slates, it’s typically easiest to focus on top plays and fades without featuring a breakdown of every game available. Because there’s only two games on the slate tonight, we’ll take a look at both matchups, determine the value, and focus on a handful of plays and a top stack for both cash and tournaments.
We’ll also evaluate where the betting market is on tonight’s matchups and go over our betting card for the night. Happy Opening Night!
Yankees @ Nationals
Scheduled First Pitch: 7:08pm ET
Forecast: 86 degrees, 66% chance of rain. Winds blowing out to right-center field at 8mph.
Yankees @ Nationals SP Matchup
Gerrit Cole ($10,000 DK, $11,400 FD) RHP vs Max Scherzer ($8,600 DK, $10,700 FD) RHP
What an insanely fun matchup we have to begin the 2020 season! Both Cole and Scherzer each had over 300 strikeouts in 2019 and according to ESPN Stats & Info, they would be the first starting matchup with 300+ strikeouts to match up on Opening Day.
I’ll never tell anyone to fade the best pitcher in baseball in a stand-alone spot on Opening Night, but I prefer Scherzer for a wide variety of reasons.
There’s quite a bit of rain in the forecast ahead of tonight’s game in DC, and the Yankees are not going to keep Cole in for longer than necessary and risk injury if there should be any sort of delay.
Scherzer actually has more projected strikeouts (8.5 Ks -125) than Cole (7.5 Ks +115) which makes sense considering the Yankees struck out at a 30% clip a season ago. And with the discrepancies in bullpen talent (Yankees top 10, Nationals 29th), it’s more likely that Scherzer stays in longer and is able to rack up more points.
Top Yankees DFS Plays
Gleyber Torres, SS ($4300 DK, $3400 FD)
Aaron Hicks, OF ($4200 DK, $2600 FD)
I don’t mind a 1-3 stack of D.J. LeMathieu, Aaron Judge and Torres to have more at-bats against the Nationals’ bullpen, but Aaron Hicks should also be in consideration tonight, particularly on FanDuel with only a $2600 salary and the ability to face Scherzer from the left side. Scherzer gave up 11 of his 18 home runs to left-handed batters in 2019.
Top Nationals DFS Plays
** Juan Soto is OUT after testing positive for COVID-19
Howie Kendrick, 1B ($4400 DK, $2500 FD)
Kendrick is an exceptional value on FanDuel tonight considering his recent success against Cole: .333 with 3 RBI in six ABs. He’s also slated to hit cleanup and may be pushed up to the number-three spot with Juan Soto now out and was a .400 wOBA player a season ago.
Furthermore, Trea Turner is always in play given his ability to steal bases and hit for power; but it’s an awfully pricey play at $5100 on DK.
Best Bets
Nationals +145
UNDER 8.5 runs
Giants @ Dodgers
Scheduled First Pitch: 10:08pm ET
Forecast: 74 degrees, 0% chance of rain. Winds blowing out to centerfield at 5mph.
Giants @ Dodgers SP Matchup
Johnny Cueto ($5,000 DK, $6,600 FD) RHP vs Clayton Kershaw ($7,700 DK, $10,300 FD) LHP
This isn’t one to mess around with. Lock in Kershaw and eat the chalk.
Via Steve Renner at FullTime DFS, Kershaw is 33-7 in the month of July with a 1.70 ERA. The Dodgers are nearly -300 favorites on the board and the Giants are projected for just three runs tonight.
As for Cueto, it’s an absolutely brutal matchup against a stacked Dodgers offense that now has Mookie Betts at the top of the lineup. Cueto is healthy for the first time in years and is looking to potentially find a new home on a contending team. He’s a career 3.35 ERA pitcher with over 1,550 strikeouts. He’s super volatile and would be tough to consider in cash, but if you want to jump on Cueto and Kershaw in tournaments and hope for some fireworks in DC, I wouldn’t fault you for it on a two-game slate.
Top Giants DFS Plays
Wilmer Flores ($3800 DK, $2100 FD)
Flores crushes lefties. Plain and simple.
His ISO in 2019 vs LHPs? .353. His wOBA in 2019 vs LHPs? .481.
It will be tough to play him over Torres, Muncy and LeMahieu, but it’s a terrific value play near the top of the Giants’ order.
Top Dodgers DFS Plays
Mookie Betts ($4900 DK, $4200 FD)
Cody Bellinger ($5100 DK, $4500 FD)
Max Muncy ($4600 DK, 3900 FD)
Justin Turner ($4100 DK, $3100 FD)
Joc Pederson ($4500 DK, 2800 FD)
The Dodgers stack is clearly the cash game stack of the night against Cueto and his 40% hard hit rate. Betts, fresh off a brand new contract will look to make a statement in his home debut and with Muncy, Turner, and Bellinger behind him, the Dodgers appear to get plenty of baserunners on against Cueto. In tournaments, I like the back end of the Dodgers with Pederson for leverage, and still being able to grab Betts at the tail end.
Giants @ Dodgers Best Bets
Dodgers -1.5 (-143)
UNDER 8.5 runs
Lastly, be sure to check out our insider Casey Olson’s MLB betting plays as well. If his MLB plays are anywhere close to his UFC bets (70% clip on the season), you should be in for a very profitable year!