SI Fantasy's Team Outlook series from high-stakes legend Shawn Childs aims to break down the New England Patriots to evaluate the offense, defense, coaches and everyone in between with a fantasy-slanted analysis.
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Coaching Staff
Bill Belichick returns to the New England Patriots for his 21st season. His road to success will be much harder with QB Tom Brady no longer on the team. Belichick has a 237-83 record in New England with six Super Bowls and three other trips to the big game. The Patriots are 30-11 in the postseason since 2001. Belichick needs 56 wins to pass Don Shula for the most in NFL history.
New England won the AFC East in each of the past 11 seasons (16 of 17 years). They have ten or more wins in every season since 2003.
New England fell to 15th in yards gained, which was their lowest showing since 2002. They fell to 7th in points scored after nine straight seasons with a top-four ranking.
Josh McDaniels returns for another season as he looks positioned to take over as head coach when Bill Belichick retires. McDaniels worked in New England’s system for 16 seasons after a brief two-year run as head coach for the Broncos (11-17) and one season as the offensive coordinator for the Rams.
The Patriots finished with the best defense in the league in points allowed (225) and yards allowed. They improved by 20 spots from 2019 in yards allowed (21st).
New England will go without a defensive coordinator for the second straight season. Belichick handled the job in 2019, and he will again this year.
Free Agency
The loss of Brady can’t be replaced in 2020. New England had too many questions at the receiver position, which may have been part of Brady's departure.
The Patriots’ defense lost LB Kyle Van Noy, LB Jamie Collins, LB Elandon Roberts, and DT Danny Shelton.
New England signed S Adrian Phillips, DT Beau Allen, S Cody Davis, and LB Brandon Copeland to their defense.
Their offense didn’t have any other significant changes in any direction.
Quarterbacks
After the loss of Tom Brady, the Patriots went bottom feeding at QB with the hopes of extending the run in the postseason. Newton struggled through the previous two seasons with the Panthers while battling left foot and right shoulder injuries. Last year his season ended after two games with unimpressive stats (572/0).
His game and success are built on his ability to make plays with his legs. Newton brings a new style to New England, but he does win games (68-55-1) with his best value coming in 2013 (12-4), 2015 (15-1), and 2017 (11-5).
I have Newton starting almost all season. With 92 percent of the quarterback playing time for the Patriots, he projects to gain 3,828 combined yards with 29 TDs and 13 Ints.
Jarrett Stidham
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Running Backs
The excitement of Michel being an upside runner on early downs is dwindling. He continued to offer no value in the passing game. Over 456 rushes in his NFL career, Michel gained over 20 yards on just seven plays. His yards per carry dropped to 3.7, painting him as a grinder back going forward. Last year Michel lacked the wheels to make big plays when reaching the second level of the defense. He averaged 16.2 touches per game. Trending down, which points to RB Damien Harris stealing plenty of his chances on early downs. A downgrade at QB is also a negative.
Michel is projected for 805 combined yards with six touchdowns and 10 catches.
Update: Michel had foot surgery in mid-June, which will limit his practice time until August. The addition of Cam Newton does steal some of the running back scoring chances at the goal line.
James White & Damien Harris
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Wide Receivers
Edelman has been a great warrior for the Patriots and is coming off his second-best fantasy season (100/1117/6). His chief left the pow wow, pointing to regression in his opportunity. He had a floor of six catches in ten contests in 2019, but the Patriots’ fading offense led to a quiet final four games (13 catches for 137 yards and no TDs on 23 targets). Edelman averaged 6.4 catches for 70 yards and 0.39 TDs over his previous 83 games.
Fantasy drafters priced him as the 39th wide receiver off the board in PPR leagues in the early draft season with an ADP of 101. Fluctuating player based on who earns the starting job at QB. I have him projected for 81 catches for 901 yards and five touchdowns.
New England fans came away from 2019 wondering if Harry would be a stud or a dud. In his limited playing time last year, he struggled to get on the same page with QB Tom Brady, which led to him catching only half (12) of his targets (24). Harry missed the first nine games with his recovery from his right ankle injury. In his seven games played, he gained fewer than 30 yards receiving while failing to catch over three passes in any week. Talented player, but the Patriots’ offense is full of cloudiness this year. Viable flier as WR6 if the summer reports remain positive.
There are lots of moving parts here, starting with the quarterback. My conservative projections for Harry in his sophomore season are 52 catches for 677 yards and four TDs. He has an ADP of 168 as the 61st wide receiver in mid-May in the high-stakes market.
Mohamed Sanu, Marqise Lee & Jakobi Meyers
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Tight Ends
Asiasi looked in better shape in 2019, after weighing in at almost 280 earlier in his college career. He showed the talent to make plays (44/641/4 on 70 targets – 14.6 yards per catch) at all three levels of the defense. His best value appears to be when moving forward with the ability to sit down vs. zone coverage. Asiasi loses some separation when asked to work back to the ball out of breaks over the field's short areas. His hands should be assets, and he offers deceiving speed and quickness downfield. Asiasi grades as a neutral option in the blocking game, which will improve with better foundation skills. The Patriots have a big void at TE, which gives Asiasi a chance to be semi-productive in his rookie year. Player to follow with the opportunity to develop into a TE2 option in fantasy leagues.
Dalton Keene
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Defense
The Patriots allowed 4.2 yards per rush in 2019, but game score led to only 22.8 rushing attempts, and the 7th ranking in rushing yards allowed (1,528). Their run defense tightened up in the red zone leading to only seven rushing TDs. They gave up six runs over 20 yards, but four of those plays gained over 40 yards.
New England finished second defending the pass with QBs passing for 2,886 yards with 13 TDs and 25 Ints. Their defense had only 47 sacks.
In the premium outlook, on defense you'll find write-ups for CB Jason McCourty, CB J.C Jackson, S Devin McCourty, S Kyle Duggar, LB Dont'a Hightower, LB Chase Winovich, DT Lawrence Guy, DT Adam Butler & DE Deatrich Wise
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Team Defense Outlook
The Patriots’ defense played great last year, and they added three more players over the first three rounds of this year’s draft. Their secondary remains their strong suit. New England should be improved at the second level of the defense, and they want to rush the quarterback with their linebackers. I don’t see any impact players on the defensive line. I expect regression vs. the run and game score should lead to deterioration in all areas in 2020. Even with a top 2019 billing on defense, this defense falls a few spots in the draft ranking this year.
Free Agency, Draft, Offensive Line, Offensive Schedule & Defensive Schedule
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