The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at the MMQB share their best bets against the spread for Week 15 in the NFL.
NFL Best Bets for Week 15
Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.
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Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1) | TOTAL: 41.5
I’m cursing myself for not jumping on this line when it first opened at Patriots +3, but now that we’re here, I still like the Patriots at the lower number.
Miami is the number one team in the NFL in covering the spread in 2020: 10-3-0. Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, as of Friday, December 18th at noon ET, 85% of the money and 86% of the bets is on Miami to cover. Yet the line shifted towards the Patriots? It looks like we have a little bit of reverse line movement on New England in this matchup.
Bill Belichick and New England will get Julian Edelman back to add a much needed shot to the arm in the passing game, and also have extra time to prepare for a rookie QB in Tua Tagovailoa. Just like Andy Reid coming off a bye, it’s never a good idea to bet against Belichick vs rookie QBs; where he’s reeled off 11 straight victories.
BEST BET: Patriots +1
Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+3) | TOTAL: 51.5
Even with the news that Saints QB Drew Brees will be returning under center in Week 15, I am willing to fade New Orleans as a home underdog. Patrick Mahomes is simply too good to be stopped right now and only asking bettors to lay 3-points is simply an early Christmas gift. The Chiefs are 12-1 on the season and 7-0 on the road but they have burned bettors going 0-5 ATS in their last five games. If not for a meaningless field goal down 9 in the final seconds last week against Miami, the drought should have ended in Week 14. It ends in Week 15. The defending Super Bowl Champions know they need this game to maintain their edge over the Pittsburgh Steelers for the top seed in the AFC with only three games to play. Even with Brees suiting up, his ribs will not be healthy enough to beat the best team in the NFL. Lay the field goal with confidence.
BEST BET: Chiefs -3
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+3) | TOTAL: 52.5
BEST BET: Chiefs -3
Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+3) | TOTAL: 52.5
Drew Brees is back for the Saints, but is that a good thing? It definitely is from a fantasy perspective (rejoice, Alvin Kamara managers), but I don’t see the Saints winning this game … even at home where they are 5-1. The Chiefs are looking to lock up home field advantage in the AFC, and they’re 7-0 on the road. Something’s got to give! I think this will be a close game and a likely high scorer, but I see K.C. and Patrick Mahomes covering the number.
BEST BET: Chiefs (-3)
Bill Enright (@BillEnright)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) and Josh Allen (BUF) Combined TDs | TOTAL: 5.5
Aaron Rodgers has nine passing TDs in his last three games and Josh Allen has 10. Both the Packers and Bills are heavy favorites and in games with an Over/Under above 50 points, so they should be high scoring contests. Need just six total touchdowns (passing, rushing, heck even receiving would count) from both quarterbacks for this prop to cash. Plus there’s boosted odds on DraftKings. Instead of -110, this player prop parlay pays out +125.
BEST BET: OVER 5.5 combined touchdowns
Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) | TOTAL: 51
Deshaun Watson and the Texans (4-9) are playing a second straight road game following a 36-7 loss to the Bears in Chicago last week. Houston was a complete no show as they were down 30-7 at halftime and were shutout in the second half. Philip Rivers and the Colts (9-4) return home after ripping the Raiders 44-27 last week in Las Vegas. Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor had his best game as a pro with 165 total yards and two touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton continued a late season surge with 86 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
This is the second meeting of the season after Indianapolis posted a 26-20 win in Houston back in Week 13. The Colts sealed the win when Watson fumbled a snap near the goal line and Indianapolis recovered the ball with less than two minutes left to play. The Colts are battling Tennessee (9-4) for first place in the AFC South while the Texans are eliminated from the playoffs. Houston is allowing 406.6 yards per game on defense and the Colts are clicking on offense. Indianapolis is the more motivated team and I like the Colts here.
Indianapolis is a -7.5 point favorite at DraftKings – Bet on the Colts to cover.
BEST BET: Colts -7.5
Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1) | TOTAL: 41.5
I will be perfectly honest and say that this line does not pass what is known as the “Smell Test”. This is going to be New England’s third straight road game and even though they are coming off 10 days rest I still hate teams going into their third straight road game. Miami’s banged up a little bit on offense but their defense is going to make New England even more one-dimensional than they already are. This should be a very low scoring game, but one that the Dolphins are able to pull out in the end, and only laying a point is enough for me to ride the team I strongly believe is better, at home and facing a tired Patriots squad.
BEST BET: Dolphins -1
Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+3) | TOTAL: 51.5
BEST BET: Chiefs -3
Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (+3) | TOTAL: 45
BEST BET: 49ers -3
Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5) | TOTAL: 47.5
Baltimore was able to rally through "crampgate" on Monday night putting up 47 on the road against a very tough Browns team. Meanwhile, the Jaguars made it 12 straight, losses that is, against Tennesse at home, in a game where we saw back up QB Mike Glennon, get benched for the OG starting QB Gardner Minshew. It kind of reminds me of 5th-grade recess at this point in Duval. The Jags rank bottom five in points scored as well as points allowed, while the Ravens rank 7th in total TDs scored, and have some momentum carrying on into Sunday at home. Ravens will look to continue their 7-0 ATS streak in December against a team that may just want to consider gunning for the top draft pick at this point.
BEST BET: Ravens -12.5
Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (+6) | TOTAL: 49.5
You might have heard that Josh Allen is streaky, and a trip to Denver on a short week, to face a good Broncos defense, is a recipe for a streakier afternoon than you might expect. Also, Buffalo’s defense has been better of late, and the Broncos want to run the ball and the clock anyway. Plus, consider these Denver team trends: The total has gone under in 11 of their last 12 games against opponents who average 27-plus points and in 15 of their last 18 games against opponents with a winning record. And in their 11 November or December home games since 2018, only once has the total gone above 44 points.
BEST BET: Total Under 49.5
Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+3) | TOTAL: 51.5
The Chiefs are the best team in football, and if you’re going to keep offering them at a field goal or less, I’m going to keep taking them. Much has been written about how they have not been blowing teams out. Kansas City has spent most of the season pairing flashes of dominance with lulls in which they let teams hang around. But in nearly every case they’ve managed to do enough to win, and for once they don’t need to blow a team out to cover. You have to have faith in their offense to score against any opponent, and even with Drew Brees expected to be back in the lineup it’s still a tall order to keep up. The Saints have a great roster and I have a ton of respect for what they’ve done to withstand Brees’ absence, but we still don’t know if he’ll be 100% right out of the gate. So I’m not overthinking it. I have a blanket rule that I’m happy to take the Chiefs any time they're only laying a field goal.
BEST BET: Chiefs -3
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