The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at the MMQB share their best bets against the spread for Week 17 in the NFL.
NFL Best Bets for Week 17
Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.
OFFICIAL VEGAS WHISPERS PICKS DOCUMENTED
YTD: 212-138-3 | MLB: 79-60 | NFL: 67-46-1 | CFB: 29-20 | January-March: 38-12-2 | Casey Olson's MMA PICKS: 210-87-6 (71% on all released betting plays)
If you are an SI PRO member and have yet to receive your invite to our Discord Community, please reach out to customer support, or send us a DM via Twitter.
Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) | TOTAL: 46
Both teams are trending extremely run-heavy and should chew up plenty of clock keeping the ball on the ground. Via PFF, the 49ers under C.J. Beathard ran the ball 54% of the time in their Week 16 upset win against the Arizona Cardinals. Even with George Kittle back, it's still a meaningless game so it's difficult to imagine him playing a ton of snaps with concern of further injury heading into the offseason.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks hold a slim chance at taking the number one seed and a bye, but would need BOTH Green Bay and New Orleans to lose along the way. All three games take place in the late afternoon window, but the Seahawks could take their foot off the pedal especially keeping track of the other games in play.
Heavy focus on the run plus potentially two teams not having much to play for puts the under in play, which has already moved from 47.5 down to 46.
BEST BET: Seahawks/49ers UNDER 46
Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)
Green Bay Packers (-4) at Chicago Bears | TOTAL: 52
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (12-3) head to the Windy City following a 40-14 win at home against Tennessee last week. Green Bay has won five straight and is looking to secure the top seed in the NFC playoffs. Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears (8-7) return home following road wins against Minnesota (33-27) and Jacksonville (41-17). After opening the season at 5-1, Chicago lost six straight but are still alive thanks to a three-game winning streak. Chicago earns a playoff berth with a win against the Packers or an L.A. Rams win against Arizona.
These teams met back in Week 12 and the Packers blasted the Bears 41-25 in Green Bay. The Packers swept the Bears last season as they won 21-13 at home and 10-3 in Chicago. Injuries in the secondary are a concern for Chicago. Safety Deon Bush plus cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine have not practiced at all this week. Leading receiver Allen Robinson has not practiced either and listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. I see the Green Bay jumping out to a big lead early and cruising to an easy cover in this contest.
Green Bay is a 4-point favorite at DraftKings – Bet on the Packers to cover.
BEST BET: Packers -5.5
Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) | TOTAL: 46
The Seahawks have clinched the NFC West but technically are still alive for the #1 seed. But their chances of getting the bye depend upon both the Bears and Panthers winning as touchdown home underdogs. While I think one of those could happen, the chances of both occurring are fairly slim and Seattle has to know this as well.
With San Francisco playing better down the stretch after an injury-riddled season I think they’re in a great spot to cover and likely upset the Seahawks who will just take their home playoff game and prepare for that in the Wild Card round.
BEST BET: San Francisco 49ers +6.5
Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+1) | TOTAL: 44.5
BEST BET: Cowboys -1
Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)
Arizona Cardinals -3 @ LA Rams | TOTAL: 40.5
BEST BET: Cardinals -3
Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+5.5) | TOTAL: 52
You have to go back more than six years to find the last time a Packers-Bears matchup came with a total greater than 50—and with good reason. Their twice-annual matchups have topped 50 only once since the start of the 2017 season. That was their Week 12 matchup this season, a 41-25 Packers win at Lambeau, which is surely what’s inflating the total for this game. But only seven of the Bears’ 32 home games since 2017 have featured 50-plus points, and while the Trubisky Revival bandwagon is rolling, Matt Nagy has consistently gotten conservative in big games.
He’ll have to get aggressive if the Packers jump out to a big lead early, but the Bears defense doesn’t often let it get away at home—they’ve held opponents to 27 points or less in 29 of their last 32 home games and the Packers haven’t scored more than 23 in their last three visits to Soldier Field.
Expect the Bears to do everything they can to make this a low-scoring slog.
BEST BET: Under 52 (UPDATE* line has moved to 50.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook)