With all the big names in the field for the first PGA Tour Major Championship of the year, SI Gambling analyst Ben Heisler highlights some of his favorite value bets and longshot plays that could pay off big!
Editor's Note: All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Previous PGA Tour Event Winners & Odds to Win:
- FedEx St. Jude: Justin Thomas (12/1)
- 3M Open: Michael Thompson (133/1)
- The Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm (22/1)
- Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa (33/1)
- Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau (6/1)
- Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson (28/1)
- RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson (30/1)
- Charles Schwab Challenge: Daniel Berger (80/1)
PGA Championship Value Bets
Viktor Hovland (45/1)
Hovland started off the restart on fire with back-to-back top 12 finishes at the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage Classic, before a third place finish at the Workday. The last two events? He’s been more human with a T48 at the Memorial and a T59 at the FedEx St. Jude.
I’m not much of a Star Wars fan, but I assume one can make an analogy for Hovland learning how to use the force when it comes to controlling his short game. For as terrific as he is strokes gained: tee-to-green (2nd) and SG: ball striking (1st) since the restart, his putter has let him down time and time again. If just for a weekend, Hovland can become “Putting Yoda,” then "walk away with a Major Championship, he will!"
Intern Liam’s Notepad
- Has only 2 finishes since the restart of golf that are outside the top 25.
- Has not missed a cut since the restart of golf either.
Gary Woodland (45/1)
Abraham Ancer (65/1)
My guess is Ancer will likely end up more in the cash game lineups as the week goes by, but if he wants to play the “disrespect card” with his pricing he has every right.
Ancer finished T58 at the Memorial a few weeks back, but he’s finished no worse than top 15 in four of his last five outings.
After Cantlay, Hatton and Rory, Ancer has made the most consecutive cuts in a row with 14.
Intern Liam’s Notepad
- Has not missed a cut since the restart
- Ranks second in scrambling gained and fourth in fairways gained
Other PGA Championship Value Plays
Matthew Fitzpatrick (40/1)
Jason Day (45/1)
Tyrell Hatton (50/1)
Adam Scott (75/1)
PGA Championship Longshots
Scottie Scheffler (85/1)
Yep. We're going back to the Scottie Scheffler well again, but I promise, this time it's different!
We played him ahead of the Rocket Mortgage and Workday Charity Open when he was way undervalued due to bad recent performance. Now, he's undervalued and his recent play has been terrific with back-to-back contending finishes: T22 at the Memorial, and T15 at the FedEx St. Jude.
Scheffler has left his awful play from the beginning of the restart in the rearview mirror. Plus, I may sprinkle a few bucks on him to win the first round outright at 70/1 as he gets the first tee of the day when nobody else will have trounced around on the course.
Time to hop aboard at great longshot odds due to all the big names participating this week.
Intern Liam’s Notepad
Monster off the tee
Scheffler is 10th on Tour in strokes gained off the tee for the 2020 season
Corey Conners (180/1)
Conners crushes it in two of my favorite metrics for this week. Since the restart, he's top 17 in SG: off-the-tee and top 15 in SG en route to three consecutive finishes ranging from T22-T39. Before missing the cut at the Travelers, Conners
Even more impressive? He's done it without any touch either on or around-the-green, ranking 118th in SG: around-the-green and 102nd in SG: putting.
If he gets off to a decent start Thursday, I expect Conners to hang around and cause some commotion up on the leaderboard.
Intern Liam’s Notepad
- Conners has a really solid game and strokes gained tee-to-green he ranks 17th
- Dual threat off the tee and to the green
- If he makes some putts this week he’s a real solid pick. He’s 184 strokes gained putting on the season so if he gets the putter hot, he'll play well
Other PGA Longshot Bets
Billy Horschel (110/1)
Harris English (110/1)
Ryan Palmer (150/1)
Paul Casey (160/1)
Emiliano Grillo (250/1)
Russell Henley (290/1)