SI Gambling expert Ben Heisler provides his favorite value plays & longshots for your betting needs in the 2020 Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village Golf.
Workday Charity Open Value Plays
Note: Odds used are from the opening lines of the Westgate Superbook Las Vegas.
Adam Hadwin (50/1)
The 32-year old Canadian has quietly been putting up very solid performances, culminating with a terrific end to the Rocket Mortgage Classic Sunday with a 7-under 65. The great final round gave him a top-four finish, his third top-four finish so far during the 2020 season.
Hadwin’s another great approach golfer currently ranked second in sand save percentage, 10th in greens in regulation percentage, and 13th in SG: total. He also hasn’t missed a cut since the Tour returned at Colonial.
Cameron Champ (80/1)
Champ may be a bit overlooked, having only played the most recent and first tournament on the PGA Tour since play resumed. Still, the 25-year old Californian has quietly put together two top 14 finishes since the Tour returned, and also won the Safeway Open earlier this season.
I similarly look at Champ to what DeChambeau has accomplished so far this year. He ranks number one on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 20th in strokes gained tee-to-green. The biggest difference is DeChambeau has been incredible with the putter while Champ ranks 116th in SG: putting.
If the putter gets hot, Champ has the upside to win this Tour event at extremely enticing odds.
Scottie Scheffler (80/1)
Last week, Scheffler was a value play of mine at 35/1. It didn't go so well.
He's been flat out terrible the last few weeks. He’s had back-to-back missed cuts at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Travelers Championship, along with a 55th place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge that should have been better if not for a 73 on the final day.
On that subject, Scheffler shot a 79 on day one from Detroit, basically sealing his fate to miss the cut. Yet he battled back the following day to shoot a 7-under 65.
Maybe it’s masochistic to play Scheffler again at this point, but I’ll take a flier on someone who was 35/1 just a week ago. I’m not sure how it can get any worse for someone this talented.
Other Values to Consider
- Harold Varner III (80/1)
- Billy Horschel (80/1)
Workday Charity Open Longshots
Joel Dahmen (100/1)
I still feel like I'm missing something on why Dahmen's odds continue to remain high. He's had two top-20 finishes since the Tour resumed and is yet to miss a cut.
Dahmen is ranked 13th in SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green and has four top 10 finishes and three top 6 finishes to his name so far in 2020. Via Fantasy National, Dahmen ranks first in SG: total, eighth in SG: off-the-tee, and seventh in SG: approach.
He's put up better final scores each week he's played, and if Dahmen can improve on his putting for just a week (145th in SG: putting), I think he makes for an excellent longshot play at Muirfield.
Ryan Armour (100/1)
Back-to-back top-six finishes will start creeping your odds up, and Ryan Armour has gone from 500/1 at the RBC Heritage to 100/1 in a matter of a few weeks.
Armour also has the local Ohio State connection to the course in Dublin, Ohio, and it’s a Jack Nicklaus designed course (also an Ohio State graduate). Armour should be fired up to play at Muirfield shooting the best rounds of golf he’s played in quite some time.
Brian Stuard (150/1)
Stuard is back in the mix again this week after finishing 30th in his hometown course of Detroit Golf Club last week at odds of 100/1.
His form remains excellent after finishing in the top 30 last week, top 20 last week at TPC River Highlands, and has now made four consecutive cuts since the tour re-opened back on June 11th at Colonial. He’s also now top-four in driving accuracy throughout 2020.
Other Longshots to Consider
- Maverick McNealy (100/1)
- Max Homa (100/1)
- Bud Cauley (125/1)