SI Fantasy analyst Mark Farris breaks down their top PGA DFS tiers, bets, and a fade for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary
- Wells Fargo Championship: Rory McIlroy ($10,000)
- Valspar Classic: Sam Burns ($7,900)
- RBC Heritage: Stewart Cink ($6,700)
- The Masters Tournament: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,300)
- Valero Texas Open: Jordan Spieth ($10,700)
- World Golf Championship - Dell Technologies Match Play: Billy Horschel ($7,200)
- The Honda Classic: Matt Jones ($7,400)
- The Players Championship: Justin Thomas ($9,900)
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)
- Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa ($9,500)
- The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa ($8,200)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger ($10,100)
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka ($8,800)
- Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed ($10,100)
- The American Express: Si Woo Kim ($8,200)
- Sony Open: Kevin Na ($7,500)
- Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)
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$9,000+ Range
Will Zalatoris & Bryson DeChambeau
DraftKings Price: $9,400 & $11,200
DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +2200 & +800
Unlike last week, I’m not avoiding the guys at the top. I think Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau are primed for a good week and not just because the PGA is next week, and they live for that, and so does Brooks Koepka. All three of these guys rank in the top-5 of the modeling tool I use. However, this isn’t prop betting that I’m playing. It’s DFS, and you can’t start with guys costing $11,000, $11,200, and $9,900. You won’t have enough money to fill out your team.
Also, I’m going off my gut and a little more stats than I normally do this week. You know I’m a current form guy, but I also like course history. This week, there is little to none!
That being said, if I have to prefer one over the other this week, it would be Bryson. That’s only because - although he thought he didn’t - he made the cut last week. Neither played the last Texas event, so I can’t make that decision on location. I’m simply making a gut call between the two.
Yes, I’m also going back to Will Zalatoris this week. Last week, Rahm’s 1st round was his problem. Will’s was round 2. I’m also blaming that on the fact that he hadn’t played competitively in 3 weeks. Not an excuse, but the wind conditions last week weren’t conducive to “shaking off any rust you may have.” Outside of that, I don’t think you’ll find anyone with more solid play in the past 10 weeks than Will Zalatoris.
Additional Plays to Consider
- Jordan Spieth ($10,700)
- Daniel Berger ($10,100)
- Marc Leishman ($9,200)
$7,500 - $8,900
Thomas Pieters and Charl Schwartzel
DraftKings Price: $8,600 & $8,100
DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +7000 & +6000
Since there is no real course history this week, I’m not giving the normal PGA Tour players any real advantage over guys that typically play across the pond. Cue Thomas Pieters! He’s been inside the top-30 in six of the seven events he’s played this year. Although his last event registered on DraftKings is Corales Puntacana in March. Euro Tour guys usually can play in the wind, and that’s always a possibility in Texas. I’m also trying to be a little different this week, and I don’t think most people will look at Thomas.
Sticking with the Euro theme and some of my recent bias, I’m going back to Charl Schwartzel. He’s priced well at $8,100 and has been playing well since the Masters. I’m still crediting his pairing with Louis Oosthuizen in the Zurich Classic as turning on a light in his game. Anyone that plays golf knows that little things can make you go from “What the hell am I doing?” to “Oh yeah, that’s how it’s done!”
Additional Plays to Consider
- Matt Kuchar ($8,200)
- Keith Mitchell ($8,000)
$7,400 and Under
Brandt Snedeker & Vincent Whaley
DraftKings Price: $7,400 & $7,000
DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +7500 & $17500
When there is little or no course history, sometimes you have to go back to calm and steady! That, to me, is Sneds! No one will question his putting. He’s not a bomber, but he’s a thinker and a strategic player. It also helps he has two top-15s in his last three events, including Valero. As always, in this price range, I want a cut maker. I’m not looking for a top-10 or a winner. However, with Sneds, neither are completely off the table.
Vincent Whaley is another story. He’s made the cut in his last seven events. He’s not the soft, warm blanket that I’m looking for, but he’s been consistent, and that’s all I can ask for at $7,000.
Additional Play to Consider: Wesley Bryan ($7,100)
Top Fade
Hideki Matsuyama
DraftKings Price: $10,300
DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +2000
I’m still contemplating whether my fade call on Rory was good or bad last week. From the standpoint of costing you points, if you listened to me, it was bad. However, I’m willing to bet some of you focused on my statement that it could be his “get-right” week, and it was. So, if you risked it, then congratulations.
This is another tough week to call a fade, but I think I’m going with Matsuyama. Why? I’m still banking on the hangover after winning a major for the first time and his break from the game. If he makes the cut, I’m guessing it’s on the number. That won’t pay off his price. As always, golf is highly unpredictable, and you sometimes have to go with your gut. This is my gut talking this week.
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