Michael Fabiano takes an in-depth look at the winners & losers of the 2021 NFL free agency period
The free-agency frenzy in the NFL has been a wild ride, as several players will be wearing new uniforms in 2021. So, who have been the biggest winners and losers among players who have been signed? Here's
Free Agency Winners
Curtis Samuel, WR, Football Team: This is one of my favorite "fantasy" moves, as Samuel goes to Washington. He ranked 27th in points among wideouts last season, but he was the WR12 over his final 10 games. During that time, he averaged more than seven targets and nearly 17 fantasy points per game. A versatile playmaker, Samuel now has a chance to earn a bigger target share and could be a valuable No. 3 wideout.
Gerald Everett, TE, Seahawks: Everett was the best free-agent tight end in the league behind Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and he could be a nice bargain in 2021 drafts. He rarely had a chance to be a true featured tight end in Los Angeles, which was evident because he never has more than 62 targets in a season. Now with the Seahawks, he'll have a chance at a bigger target share and a more reliable role on fantasy teams.
Cam Newton, QB, Patriots: Newton is a fantasy winner not simply by re-signing with the Patriots, but because he's got more weapons in the passing attack. New England has added Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne to a team with Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry, and Jakobi Meyers under contract. That's good news for Newton, who threw for a pitiful eight touchdown passes as a starter in 2020.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Football Team: Fitzpatrick has been underrated in fantasy land over the last two seasons, scoring 19-plus points in 10 of his last 14 games with at least 15 pass attempts. Now the favorite to start in Washington, the Amish Rifle will lead an offense that fields talented young players like Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas. The magic man will have late-round value in 2021 drafts.
Andy Dalton, QB, Bears: Dalton isn't a world-beater among fantasy quarterbacks, but he landed in a good spot for his value. The Bears will allow Dalton a chance to start in a competition with Nick Foles, and some would suggest the Red Rifle is the favorite to be under center in Week 1. Dalton isn't likely to be selected in most drafts that don't have two quarterbacks or a super flex, but the chance to start still makes him a winner.
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Free Agency Losers
Kenyan Drake, RB, Raiders: In one of the worst 2021 fantasy free agent moves, Drake takes his talents to Las Vegas, where he'll form a one-two punch with Josh Jacobs. That might be fun for coach Jon Gruden and the Raiders, but it stinks in fantasy circles. You can say goodbye to Jacobs's 37.1% touch share and Drake's 20.5 percent share from last season and expect a committee that will limit both players' fantasy stock.
Will Fuller, WR, Dolphins: Fuller was on pace to have a career season in 2020, but he was suspended for the final five games. When he was on the field, he averaged 17.2 points a game. His value takes a hit in Miami, though, as he'll be playing in an offense with a lot of young talent. Fuller will also see a downgrade at quarterback from Deshaun Watson to Tua Tagovailoa, so look for him to be drafted as a No. 3 fantasy wideout.
Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots: If you told me the Patriots would be signing Henry before free agency starts, I'd have been excited. But Henry and Jonnu Smith? That throws cold water on the stock of both players. There have been just four instances of tight end teammates finishing in the top 12 in fantasy points in the same season since 2000, so Henry and Smith are likely to struggle to produce consistently good numbers.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Patriots: Smith's value looked to be on the rise due to signing with the Patriots, but the team later added Henry (doh!). That puts a cap on the fantasy appeal of both players. The Patriots will undoubtedly run a ton of 12 personnel as they did back in the Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez days, but Tom Brady isn't here anymore. Smith is the lesser of the two tight ends and now has just late-round fantasy appeal.
Marlon Mack, RB, Colts: Mack, who is coming off a torn Achilles, decided to remain with the Colts on a one-year deal. It's not ideal for his value, and some fantasy fans might think it hurts Jonathan Taylor too. I still see him as a first-round pick, though. Mack will likely see some work and be a good handcuff if Taylor misses time, but you have to wonder how much of his quickness was left on the operating room table.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Bills: Sanders lands in Buffalo, where he'll take over the role left behind by John Brown (Raiders). The veteran finished 41st in fantasy points among wideouts a season ago, and I don't think he'll be much better for the Bills while playing behind Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Gabriel Davis. His presence might take a little of the luster away from Davis, but Sanders won't be worth more than a late draft flier.
John Brown, WR, Raiders: Brown signed a one-year deal with the Raiders and will (at least for now) replace Nelson Agholor. He'll play with Henry Ruggs III and Hunter Renfrow when the Raiders go three-wide, and Bryan Edwards will also be in the mix. Brown, who saw his numbers tumble last season while missing seven games for the Bills, could be worth a late flier in fantasy drafts but won't be more than a No. 5 wideout.
Nelson Agholor, WR, Patriots: Agholor is coming off a career season in Las Vegas that saw him finish with eight touchdowns and nearly 190 fantasy points. He also had a team-high 16.5 percent target share. New England also added Kendrick Bourne and still has Julian Edelman, Jacobi Meyers, and N'Keal Harry under contract, not to mention the additions of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Agholor's stock has seen a decline.
Push
Aaron Jones, RB, Packers: Jones didn't switch teams, so this one falls under the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" category. He's been a top-five fantasy runner in two straight years, and at 26, he's still in the prime of his career. The Packers also let Jamaal Williams leave for the Lions, so Jones won't be contending with two other runners (including A.J. Dillon) for touches. He should remain a top-15 overall pick in fantasy football drafts.
Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Jaguars: Jones was the WR18 a season ago, but that was due largely to a major increase in target share with Kenny Golladay injured. That share is likely to decrease in Jacksonville with D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault in the mix, and the Jaguars might not be done adding offensive pieces. Jones does know the offense from his time in Detroit with coordinator Darrell Bevell, thus the push label.
Corey Davis, WR, Jets: Davis is coming off a career season that saw him produce 984 yards, five touchdowns, and a WR30 finish based on fantasy points. Still, even as the top option in New York (maybe?), I don't see this as more than a lateral move from a fantasy perspective. The Jets also field Denzel Mims and Jamison Crowder, and they aren't done adding weapons. Plus, who will be their starting quarterback in 2021?
Jameis Winston, QB, Saints: The decision to remain in New Orleans could be a good one for Winston, but time will tell. Most Saints beat writers project him to be the Week 1 starter, and we know the offense can be a real advantage for quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points. Winston is a push, however, because he'll have to compete for the top spot on the depth chart with Taysom Hill. It'll be a competition to watch this summer.
A.J. Green, WR, Cardinals: Green, who turns 33 this summer, looked like a shell of his former self last season. He did have 104 targets, but he turned them into a modest 47 catches for 523 yards in the stat sheets. The Cardinals' offense can be wide receiver friendly, but it'll be tough for Green to be worth anything more than a late-round flier (at best) in fantasy drafts while playing behind DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk.
Jamaal Williams, RB, Lions: Williams was one of the better fantasy handcuffs over the last two seasons behind Jones in Green Bay, and I think he'll fill a similar role for the Lions behind D'Andre Swift. You could argue his value will rise a bit because Swift has yet to be established as a true featured back, but I still see the Georgia product as a viable No. 2 fantasy running back in 2021 drafts. Williams will be a mid to late rounder.
Jared Cook, TE, Chargers: Cook signed with the Chargers and joining one of the league's best young quarterbacks in Justin Herbert. He'll be the projected starter for the Bolts, leaving fantasy truthers of Donald Parham in a state of shock. Playing with Herbert is a positive, of course, but I don't expect Cook to be much more than he was last season. A mid-tier No. 2 fantasy tight end worth no more than a late rounder.
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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for all of the latest breaking fantasy football news and the best analysis in the business!
