Vegas Insider Frankie Taddeo breaks down the 2021 Home Run Derby
Arguably one of the most exciting events of the summer is set to take place later tonight when the best home run hitters in the game face off in Major League Baseball’s Home Run Derby. Sports fans, who were deprived of the exciting event last season due to COVID-19, will now get to witness Shohei Ohtani take on the 2019 reigning champion Pete Alonso.
Eight players are among the field in this year’s edition of the Home Run Derby, with this season’s likely league-MVP Shohei Ohtani slotted in as the clear betting favorite at 888sport at odds of +250. Through the first half of the 2021 MLB season, Ohtani leads all players with 33 home runs while adding 70 RBIs.
Betting Odds To Win The 2021 Home Run Derby
(Odds courtesy of 888sport)
- Shohei Ohtani +250
- Joey Gallo +450
- Pete Alonso +500
- Matt Olson +525
- Juan Soto +800
- Trevor Story +800
- Salvador Perez +1000
- Trey Mancini +1000
First-Round Matchups Betting Odds
- #1 Ohtani (-230) vs #8 Soto (+175)
- #2 Gallo (-195) vs #7 Story (+150)
- #3 Olson (-265) vs #6 Mancini (+200)
- #4 Perez (+182) vs #5 Alonso (-240)
The Betting Favorite
Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels is performing at a historic level this season and thus is the clear betting favorite to win the Home Run Derby. Ohtani is poised to put on a show in the Derby but the +250 odds being offered at 888sport is simply too short for bettors to consider.
Sleeper
Trevor Story of the Colorado Rockies will have the clear edge of being the hometown favorite thanks to the event taking place at Coors Field. His +800 odds are quite attractive for a player who will have strong fan support, which we know has carried tiring players in the past. Story’s 11 home runs pale compared to the first half total of Ohtani but having the crowd support behind him makes him a longshot with value. In addition, a deeper dive reveals that Story is the underdog with the lowest odds (+150) to advance out of his first-round matchup with Joey Gallo (-195). If Story were able to advance, he would find a favorable second-round matchup with Matt Olson or Trevor Mancini.
Final Thoughts
There is tremendous value in Pete Alonso of the New York Mets, who enters this year’s derby with 17 home runs. The talented right-handed slugger hit 57 home runs total in the 2019 Derby. At healthy odds of +550, bettors can invest in a player who has already taken home the hardware. I am not thrilled about a potential second-round matchup with Ohtani, but all the pressure will be on the league’s top home run hitter. Alonso, who is the biggest favorite to advance to the second round at odds of -240, should have no issue defeating Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals.
SI Gambling Pick: Pete Alonso (+550)
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